The Bills’ points with Dalton Kincaid and without Dalton Kincaid
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bills were 5.0 points over with Dalton Kincaid and 0.8 points under without Dalton Kincaid over their last 35 games, 27 games against 8. The plain averages are 31.7 and 26.0, a difference of 5.7. All 5 playoff games were with Dalton Kincaid.
Dalton Kincaid, tight end: 1,246 receiving yards, 91 receptions and 120 targets in 27 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with Dalton Kincaid
+5.0
without Dalton Kincaid
−0.8
-1001020
A +5.8 difference in points over expected with Dalton Kincaid vs without Dalton Kincaid is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Dalton Kincaid and it comes up 7 times in 100.
plain
31.7
26.0
203040
A +5.7 difference in points with Dalton Kincaid vs without Dalton Kincaid is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Dalton Kincaid and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
with Dalton Kincaidwithout Dalton Kincaid
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs SF | W | 35 | 30.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ LA | L | 42 | 25.6 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ DET | W | 48 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs NE | W | 24 | 31.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs NYJ | W | 40 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @NE | L | 16 | 30.3 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs DEN | W | 31 | 25.9 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs BAL | W | 27 | 27.5 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ KC | L | 29 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsBAL | W | 41 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @NYJ | W | 30 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 31 | 29.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs NO | W | 31 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsNE | L | 20 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ ATL | L | 14 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ CAR | W | 40 | 24.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vsKC | W | 28 | 25.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @MIA | L | 13 | 29.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs TB | W | 44 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ HOU | L | 19 | 21.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ PIT | W | 26 | 26.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 39 | 31.9 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @NE | W | 35 | 22.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs PHI | L | 12 | 25.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsNYJ | W | 35 | 32.3 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ JAX | W | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @DEN | L | 30 | 23.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @HOU | W | 36 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vsDET | W | 41 | 25.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 24 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsNE | L | 26 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @LA | W | 37 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 33 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsBAL | W | 36 | 25.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.