The Bills' points of margin with Ty Johnson and without Ty Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bills were 4.9 points over with Ty Johnson and 6.4 points over without Ty Johnson in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 7.4 and 7.5, a difference of 0.1. Expected was 1.4 points higher with Ty Johnson than without Ty Johnson. All 5 games on a full week’s rest or more were with Ty Johnson. All 4 second-half games were with Ty Johnson.
Ty Johnson, running back: 10 rushing yards, 6 carries and 15 receptions in 5 games this season.
2 games without Ty Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −1.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Ty Johnson vs without Ty Johnson is about what you’d expect.
A −0.1 difference in points of margin with Ty Johnson vs without Ty Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 5 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | W | 10 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 8 | 5.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | L | -3 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ LA | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 3 | 2.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs BAL | W | 26 | 1.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.