The Bills’ carries with Ty Johnson and without Ty Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bills were 4.1 carries over with Ty Johnson and 1.1 carries over without Ty Johnson in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 32.0 and 28.5, a difference of 3.5. All 5 games on a full week’s rest or more were with Ty Johnson. All 4 second-half games were with Ty Johnson.
Ty Johnson, running back: 10 rushing yards, 6 carries and 15 receptions in 5 games this season, 4% of BUF’s carries in those games.
2 games without Ty Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +3.0 difference in carries over expected with Ty Johnson vs without Ty Johnson is about what you’d expect.
A +3.5 difference in carries with Ty Johnson vs without Ty Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 21 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | W | 36 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 33 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | L | 20 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ LA | W | 37 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 29 | 28.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs BAL | W | 41 | 27.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.