The Trail Blazers' points allowed vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Trail Blazers were 3.6 points over vs a division opponent and 1.1 points under vs a team outside the division over their last 165 games, 32 games against 133. The plain averages are 120.3 and 113.0, a difference of 7.3. All 5 playoff games were vs a team outside the division. All 4 games without Toumani Camara were vs a team outside the division.
The Trail Blazers' +4.7 vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division over expected ranks 1st of the 30 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games.
points allowed a game over expected
vs a division opponent
+3.6
vs a team outside the division
−1.1
-20020
A +4.7 difference in points allowed over expected vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up 3 times in 100.
plain
120.3
113.0
80100120140
A +7.3 difference in points allowed vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
vs a division opponentvs a team outside the division
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs MIN | W | 108 | 113.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | vsMIN | W | 98 | 113.4 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 110 | 117.3 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ OKC | L | 109 | 119.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ HOU | L | 116 | 114.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @HOU | W | 98 | 115.0 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | @ MEM | L | 123 | 121.3 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | @ IND | L | 121 | 117.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs SAC | W | 106 | 114.9 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs DAL | L | 137 | 112.8 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 127 | 112.7 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs UTA | L | 141 | 110.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ LAL | L | 107 | 113.8 | |
| Dec 13, 2024 | vs SAS | L | 118 | 113.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ PHX | L | 116 | 114.5 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs DEN | W | 124 | 118.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @SAS | L | 114 | 114.8 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @DAL | L | 132 | 114.7 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vsUTA | W | 120 | 111.3 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vsDAL | W | 122 | 113.2 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 125 | 108.9 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @LAL | L | 114 | 113.6 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ MIL | W | 102 | 116.0 | |
| Jan 6, 2025 | @ DET | L | 118 | 115.6 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ NOP | W | 100 | 111.4 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @DAL | L | 117 | 115.0 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs MIA | L | 119 | 108.9 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vs BKN | L | 132 | 104.3 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vsLAC | L | 118 | 111.2 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 125 | 112.7 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs CHI | W | 102 | 117.0 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | @MIA | W | 107 | 110.9 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ ORL | W | 79 | 106.8 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | @ CHA | W | 97 | 106.7 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vsOKC | L | 118 | 117.6 | |
| Jan 28, 2025 | vsMIL | W | 112 | 114.1 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vsORL | W | 90 | 104.8 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vsPHX | W | 108 | 112.9 | |
| Feb 3, 2025 | vsPHX | W | 119 | 112.7 | |
| Feb 4, 2025 | vsIND | W | 89 | 116.6 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsSAC | W | 102 | 115.0 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @MIN | L | 114 | 114.8 | |
| Feb 10, 2025 | @DEN | L | 146 | 119.6 | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | @DEN | L | 132 | 119.9 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vsLAL | L | 110 | 112.0 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vsCHA | W | 88 | 105.2 | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | @UTA | W | 112 | 113.2 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 121 | 109.2 | |
| Feb 28, 2025 | @BKN | W | 102 | 106.7 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @ CLE | L | 133 | 121.6 | |
| Mar 3, 2025 | @PHI | W | 102 | 111.1 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | @ BOS | L | 128 | 115.6 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | @OKC | L | 107 | 119.5 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsDET | L | 119 | 113.9 | |
| Mar 10, 2025 | @ GSW | L | 130 | 113.5 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vs NYK | L | 114 | 113.9 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vs TOR | W | 102 | 110.5 | |
| Mar 17, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 97 | 108.0 | |
| Mar 19, 2025 | vsMEM | W | 99 | 120.1 | |
| Mar 21, 2025 | vsDEN | W | 109 | 118.6 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vsBOS | L | 129 | 113.9 | |
| Mar 25, 2025 | vsCLE | L | 122 | 120.1 | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | @SAC | L | 128 | 116.1 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | @NYK | L | 110 | 115.7 | |
| Apr 1, 2025 | @ATL | W | 113 | 119.0 | |
| Apr 3, 2025 | @TOR | W | 103 | 112.2 | |
| Apr 4, 2025 | @CHI | L | 118 | 118.3 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | vsSAS | W | 109 | 113.2 | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | @UTA | L | 133 | 112.7 | |
| Apr 11, 2025 | vsGSW | L | 103 | 112.4 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | vsLAL | W | 81 | 112.7 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vsMIN | L | 118 | 115.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vsGSW | W | 119 | 113.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @LAC | L | 114 | 114.4 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @LAL | W | 108 | 116.3 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @UTA | W | 134 | 118.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vsDEN | W | 107 | 120.0 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vsLAL | L | 123 | 114.4 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vsOKC | W | 119 | 117.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @MIA | L | 136 | 121.0 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @ORL | L | 115 | 115.6 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @NOP | W | 117 | 116.4 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @HOU | L | 140 | 114.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @DAL | L | 138 | 114.5 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vsPHX | L | 127 | 111.8 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vsCHI | L | 122 | 115.5 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @GSW | W | 123 | 115.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @OKC | L | 122 | 119.2 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @MIL | W | 103 | 112.1 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vsSAS | L | 115 | 117.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsOKC | L | 123 | 117.6 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @TOR | L | 121 | 115.1 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @CLE | W | 110 | 118.9 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @DET | L | 122 | 116.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @MEM | L | 119 | 115.4 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @NOP | L | 143 | 115.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsGSW | W | 131 | 113.5 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vsSAC | W | 133 | 110.2 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @SAC | W | 93 | 112.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vsDET | L | 110 | 114.9 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vsORL | L | 110 | 114.1 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vsLAC | L | 119 | 112.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsBOS | W | 108 | 113.3 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 122 | 113.2 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @OKC | L | 124 | 119.2 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | @NOP | W | 109 | 116.6 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @SAS | W | 110 | 119.6 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | vsUTA | W | 117 | 116.8 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsHOU | W | 102 | 113.3 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsHOU | W | 105 | 113.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsNYK | L | 123 | 115.3 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @GSW | L | 119 | 115.3 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsATL | W | 101 | 117.1 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsLAL | W | 116 | 114.5 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @SAC | W | 110 | 112.3 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 110 | 119.9 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vsTOR | L | 110 | 113.7 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | @BOS | L | 102 | 115.1 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @WAS | L | 115 | 114.2 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @NYK | L | 127 | 116.8 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsCLE | L | 130 | 116.9 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vsPHX | L | 130 | 111.7 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | vsMEM | W | 115 | 113.9 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsMEM | W | 115 | 113.9 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 118 | 114.5 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @MIN | L | 133 | 117.0 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @UTA | W | 119 | 118.4 | |
| Feb 20, 2026 | vsDEN | L | 157 | 118.9 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @PHX | W | 77 | 114.4 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | vsMIN | L | 124 | 115.6 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @CHI | W | 112 | 117.3 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @CHA | L | 109 | 116.5 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ATL | L | 135 | 118.0 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @MEM | W | 114 | 115.5 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @HOU | L | 106 | 114.8 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsIND | W | 111 | 112.2 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsCHA | L | 103 | 115.1 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsUTA | W | 114 | 116.9 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @PHI | L | 109 | 116.3 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | @BKN | W | 95 | 108.4 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | @IND | W | 119 | 113.6 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | @MIN | W | 104 | 117.6 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @DEN | L | 128 | 121.1 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | vsBKN | W | 99 | 106.7 | |
| Mar 25, 2026 | vsMIL | W | 99 | 110.6 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 100 | 113.7 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | vsWAS | W | 88 | 113.2 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @LAC | W | 104 | 114.7 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vsNOP | W | 106 | 115.0 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @DEN | L | 137 | 121.0 | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | @SAS | L | 112 | 119.6 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vsLAC | W | 97 | 113.2 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsSAC | W | 110 | 110.7 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @SAS | L | 111 | 119.6 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | @SAS | W | 103 | 119.7 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vsSAS | L | 120 | 117.8 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsSAS | L | 114 | 117.9 | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | @SAS | L | 114 | 119.5 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vsPHX | W | 83 | 118.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @SAC | W | 120 | 107.8 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @LAL | W | 129 | 112.8 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsMEM | L | 124 | 111.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @UTA | W | 90 | 111.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @DEN | W | 110 | 111.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @PHX | W | 119 | 112.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024-25, minus 0.9 in 2025-26, minus 0.5 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 92% in 2024-25, 90% in 2025-26, 47% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.