The Nuggets' points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Nuggets were 10.5 points over at home and 11.4 points under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 123.3 and 105.0, a difference of 18.3.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+10.5
away
−11.4
-20020
A +21.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.
plain
123.3
105.0
100120140
A +18.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ OKC | L | 84 | 113.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs NOP | W | 141 | 114.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs GSW | L | 114 | 112.5 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @NOP | W | 104 | 119.8 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ PHX | W | 127 | 116.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs POR | L | 110 | 111.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs TOR | W | 128 | 113.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 47% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.