The 76ers' turnovers vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under
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Through the 76ers' game on May 10, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 76ers were 0.9 turnovers over vs a team over .500 and 1.8 turnovers under vs a team at .500 or under in 2025-26, 39 games against 33. The plain averages are 14.2 and 10.9, a difference of 3.3. All 3 games without Dominick Barlow were vs a team at .500 or under.
The 76ers' +2.6 vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under over expected ranks 1st of the 30 teams with 10 games on each side in 2025-26 through May 10.
turnovers a game over expected
A +2.6 difference in turnovers over expected vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under is rare: shuffle which games were vs a team over .500 and it comes up once in 100.
A +3.3 difference in turnovers vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under is rare: shuffle which games were vs a team over .500 and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ BOS | W | 14 | 11.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs CHA | W | 15 | 11.5 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | vs ORL | W | 6 | 13.6 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 14 | 12.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vsBOS | L | 18 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ BKN | W | 15 | 13.0 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 16 | 11.8 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ CLE | L | 18 | 13.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs TOR | W | 13 | 14.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs DET | L | 19 | 14.6 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsBOS | W | 9 | 11.2 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @DET | L | 15 | 14.9 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vs LAC | W | 9 | 12.8 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vsTOR | L | 21 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ MIL | W | 14 | 11.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs MIA | L | 14 | 13.4 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsORL | L | 21 | 13.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @BKN | W | 11 | 13.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs ATL | L | 18 | 14.0 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 10 | 12.5 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs GSW | W | 19 | 14.2 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @MIL | W | 12 | 11.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs LAL | L | 6 | 13.2 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | vs IND | W | 12 | 12.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ATL | L | 11 | 14.3 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | @ NYK | W | 10 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs DAL | W | 8 | 12.0 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vsBKN | L | 16 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | @CHI | L | 8 | 12.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ OKC | L | 23 | 14.9 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @ MEM | W | 8 | 14.3 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @DAL | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @NYK | W | 13 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | vs DEN | L | 14 | 10.6 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsWAS | W | 10 | 12.5 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | @ORL | W | 12 | 13.7 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @TOR | L | 22 | 14.3 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @TOR | W | 16 | 14.4 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsCLE | L | 12 | 13.3 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vsCLE | L | 10 | 13.3 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsIND | W | 8 | 12.2 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs PHX | L | 19 | 14.2 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 15 | 12.2 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsNYK | L | 13 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | @CHA | L | 17 | 11.7 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vsMIL | W | 6 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs SAC | W | 9 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs NOP | W | 9 | 12.9 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @LAC | W | 5 | 13.1 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @GSW | W | 12 | 14.6 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @LAL | L | 14 | 13.2 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @PHX | W | 17 | 14.4 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @ POR | L | 13 | 14.2 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsNYK | L | 18 | 13.1 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsATL | L | 15 | 14.1 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @NOP | L | 10 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @ MIN | W | 10 | 13.6 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | @IND | W | 13 | 12.3 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 14 | 13.4 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @BOS | L | 6 | 11.4 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vs SAS | L | 13 | 11.7 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vs UTA | W | 14 | 13.1 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @ATL | L | 19 | 14.2 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | @CLE | L | 14 | 13.4 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsMEM | W | 10 | 14.0 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @DET | L | 15 | 14.9 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsBKN | W | 14 | 12.8 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsPOR | W | 12 | 14.1 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @DEN | L | 13 | 10.8 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @SAC | W | 9 | 12.8 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @UTA | W | 16 | 13.2 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | vsOKC | L | 16 | 14.9 | |
| Mar 25, 2026 | vsCHI | W | 8 | 11.8 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @CHA | W | 9 | 11.8 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | @MIA | L | 9 | 13.7 | |
| Apr 1, 2026 | @WAS | W | 10 | 12.7 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | vsMIN | W | 15 | 13.3 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsDET | L | 15 | 14.7 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @SAS | L | 11 | 11.9 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @HOU | L | 16 | 12.4 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | @IND | W | 8 | 12.4 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsMIL | W | 12 | 11.7 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @BOS | L | 14 | 11.3 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | @BOS | W | 7 | 11.4 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vsBOS | L | 11 | 11.1 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsBOS | L | 8 | 11.2 | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | @BOS | W | 9 | 11.4 | |
| Apr 30, 2026 | vsBOS | W | 10 | 11.2 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @BOS | W | 9 | 11.4 | |
| May 4, 2026 | @NYK | L | 19 | 13.3 | |
| May 6, 2026 | @NYK | L | 18 | 13.3 | |
| May 8, 2026 | vsNYK | L | 11 | 13.2 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsNYK | L | 9 | 13.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.