Heat @ Lakers

Mon, Nov 2, 2026

Lakers 138, Heat 117

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The Lakers lead the series 47–36 since 1988-89. The Lakers have won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

On a back-to-back, the Lakers' points allowed were 27.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.6 over expected.
At home, the Lakers' points were 12.7 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.9 over expected.
On the road, the Heat's 3-point attempts were 6.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.7 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Nov 1, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.