Putting Up Numbers· NBA

Heat @ Hawks

Wed, Oct 28, 2026

Heat 129, Hawks 117

Heat at Hawks: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameHeat1 gameHawks1 game
Points+17.3−2.4
Points allowed+2.4+14.7
Rebounds+7.7−4.9
Assists+10.0+8.1
3-pointers made−1.2+1.7
Free throw attempts−2.8−10.5
Turnovers−2.2−0.6
Turnovers forced0.0−1.0

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Hawks

Heat

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Heat

The series

  • The Heat lead the series 94–70 since 1988-89. The Heat have won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, the Hawks' 3-point attempts were 9.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.2 under expected.
  • Against a division opponent, the Hawks' points of margin were 21.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.1 under expected.
  • On the road, the Heat's assists were 5.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 28, 2026at HawksHeat 129, Hawks 117
Apr 12, 2026at HeatHeat 143, Hawks 117
Feb 20, 2026at HawksHeat 128, Hawks 97
Feb 3, 2026at HeatHawks 127, Heat 115
Dec 26, 2025at HawksHeat 126, Hawks 111
Mar 27, 2025at HeatHeat 122, Hawks 112
Feb 26, 2025at HeatHeat 131, Hawks 109
Feb 24, 2025at HawksHawks 98, Heat 86
Dec 28, 2024at HawksHawks 120, Heat 110
Apr 9, 2024at HawksHeat 117, Hawks 111

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 27, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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