UT Martin’s points at home and away
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Through UT Martin’s game on Nov 2, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, UT Martin was 5.9 points under at home and 6.2 points over away over its last 60 games, 22 games against 27. The plain averages are 72.4 and 75.1, a difference of 2.7. Expected was 3.0 points higher at home than away.
UT Martin’s −12.1 at home vs away over expected ranks 365th of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Nov 2, 2026.
points a game over expected
at home
−5.9
away
+6.2
-20020
A −12.1 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
72.4
75.1
50100
A −2.7 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | @ Charleston Southern | L | 68 | 71.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vsMMontreat | W | 112 | — | |
| Dec 11, 2024 | @ Alabama State | L | 93 | 69.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vsCChampion Christian | W | 123 | — | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @ Morehead State | L | 69 | 68.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Southern Indiana | W | 77 | 72.4 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Little Rock | L | 56 | 69.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Southeast Missouri State | W | 66 | 71.4 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @ Western Illinois | W | 85 | 70.9 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Lindenwood | L | 81 | 71.3 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs Eastern Illinois | W | 68 | 70.5 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs SIU Edwardsville | W | 85 | 67.9 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | @ Tennessee State | L | 80 | 73.6 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs Tennessee Tech | L | 85 | 74.3 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | @Southeast Missouri State | L | 79 | 67.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @Little Rock | L | 57 | 66.3 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsLindenwood | L | 51 | 76.2 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsWestern Illinois | W | 81 | 74.1 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @SIU Edwardsville | W | 76 | 65.6 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @Eastern Illinois | W | 72 | 67.3 | |
| Feb 18, 2025 | vsTennessee State | L | 75 | 76.8 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @Tennessee Tech | L | 66 | 72.6 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsSouthern Indiana | W | 79 | 75.2 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsMorehead State | L | 47 | 72.6 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | vsTennessee Tech (neutral) | W | 70 | 73.8 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsLittle Rock (neutral) | L | 77 | 66.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ UNLV | W | 86 | 65.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsKKentucky Christian | W | 97 | — | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Bradley | W | 78 | 64.1 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 73 | 62.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M (neutral) | W | 69 | 72.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Southern Miss (neutral) | L | 60 | 68.0 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsBBrescia | W | 75 | — | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vsCharleston Southern | W | 73 | 74.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsAlabama State | W | 74 | 72.4 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Southern Illinois | L | 54 | 60.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsCChampion Christian | W | 96 | — | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @Tennessee State | L | 71 | 68.9 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Tennessee Tech | W | 86 | 67.8 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsWestern Illinois | W | 67 | 75.0 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsEastern Illinois | W | 65 | 68.1 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Morehead State | W | 76 | 67.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Southern Indiana | W | 73 | 68.0 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsSIU Edwardsville | W | 65 | 63.4 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsLindenwood | W | 69 | 71.7 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @Southeast Missouri State | L | 50 | 66.9 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @Eastern Illinois | W | 76 | 64.8 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Western Illinois | W | 84 | 71.2 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vsLittle Rock | W | 55 | 71.3 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vsSouthern Indiana | W | 76 | 70.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsMorehead State | L | 55 | 71.8 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Lindenwood | L | 74 | 68.8 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @SIU Edwardsville | W | 81 | 59.7 | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | vsSoutheast Missouri State | L | 53 | 69.4 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @Little Rock | L | 65 | 68.0 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsTennessee Tech | W | 64 | 71.9 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsTennessee State | L | 42 | 73.3 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsEastern Illinois (neutral) | W | 66 | 66.7 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsTennessee State (neutral) | L | 55 | 71.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 98 | 98.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024-25, plus 1.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% in 2024-25, 90% in 2025-26, 100% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Montreat, Champion Christian, Kentucky Christian, Brescia, Champion Christian have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 3, 2026; the games are the ones through Nov 2.