UT Martin’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UT Martin was 7.9 points under at home and 7.3 points over away in 2025-26, 12 games against 14. The plain averages are 68.4 and 73.4, a difference of 5.0. Expected was 5.0 points higher at home than away. All 3 games without Filip Petkovski were at home.
UT Martin’s −15.2 at home vs away over expected ranks 365th of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
points a game over expected
at home
−7.9
away
+7.3
-20020
A −15.2 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
68.4
73.4
6080
A −5.0 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ UNLV | W | 86 | 65.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsKKentucky Christian | W | 97 | — | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Bradley | W | 78 | 64.1 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 73 | 62.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M (neutral) | W | 69 | 72.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Southern Miss (neutral) | L | 60 | 68.0 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsBBrescia | W | 75 | — | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Charleston Southern | W | 73 | 74.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Alabama State | W | 74 | 72.4 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Southern Illinois | L | 54 | 60.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsCChampion Christian | W | 96 | — | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @ Tennessee State | L | 71 | 68.9 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Tennessee Tech | W | 86 | 67.8 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Western Illinois | W | 67 | 75.0 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Illinois | W | 65 | 68.1 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Morehead State | W | 76 | 67.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Southern Indiana | W | 73 | 68.0 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs SIU Edwardsville | W | 65 | 63.4 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Lindenwood | W | 69 | 71.7 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @ Southeast Missouri State | L | 50 | 66.9 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @Eastern Illinois | W | 76 | 64.8 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Western Illinois | W | 84 | 71.2 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vs Little Rock | W | 55 | 71.3 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vsSouthern Indiana | W | 76 | 70.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsMorehead State | L | 55 | 71.8 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Lindenwood | L | 74 | 68.8 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @SIU Edwardsville | W | 81 | 59.7 | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | vsSoutheast Missouri State | L | 53 | 69.4 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @Little Rock | L | 65 | 68.0 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsTennessee Tech | W | 64 | 71.9 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsTennessee State | L | 42 | 73.3 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsEastern Illinois (neutral) | W | 66 | 66.7 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsTennessee State (neutral) | L | 55 | 71.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Kentucky Christian, Brescia, Champion Christian have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.