UNC Asheville’s turnovers in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through UNC Asheville’s game on Mar 7, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNC Asheville was 1.3 turnovers under in a conference game and 2.9 turnovers over in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 36 games against 17. The plain averages are 9.1 and 12.8, a difference of 3.6.
UNC Asheville’s −4.3 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 364th of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 7, 2026.
turnovers a game over expected
A −4.3 difference in turnovers over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −3.6 difference in turnovers in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ Central Arkansas | L | 20 | 10.0 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ Tennessee State | W | 11 | 11.0 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | @ George Mason | L | 14 | 11.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vsSSt. Andrews | W | 14 | — | |
| Dec 11, 2024 | vsBBluefield | W | 8 | — | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Western Carolina | W | 13 | 8.3 | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | vs North Florida | W | 14 | 9.6 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vsVVirginia Lynchburg | W | 7 | — | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ UNC Wilmington | L | 10 | 10.3 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vsCColumbia International | W | 9 | — | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs High Point | W | 2 | 9.4 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Longwood | L | 12 | 12.6 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Presbyterian | W | 6 | 10.4 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | vs South Carolina Upstate | W | 6 | 10.6 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Winthrop | W | 10 | 11.6 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | @ Gardner-Webb | W | 7 | 9.3 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Charleston Southern | W | 10 | 8.5 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vs Radford | W | 11 | 8.7 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsGardner-Webb | W | 10 | 8.5 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @High Point | L | 11 | 9.4 | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | @South Carolina Upstate | W | 8 | 11.1 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsCharleston Southern | W | 5 | 8.2 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | @Radford | L | 10 | 9.4 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vsLongwood | W | 11 | 12.0 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | vsPresbyterian | L | 7 | 9.7 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @Winthrop | L | 16 | 11.8 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsCharleston Southern (neutral) | W | 7 | 8.4 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsWinthrop (neutral) | L | 14 | 11.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Wichita State | L | 16 | 10.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 18 | 11.6 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Lipscomb | W | 14 | 10.9 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vsBBryan | W | 9 | — | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @Western Carolina | L | 8 | 9.8 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsTennessee State | L | 22 | 11.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs App State (neutral) | W | 11 | 8.2 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs UNC Greensboro (neutral) | W | 7 | 9.2 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ NC State | L | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 11 | 10.9 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs St. Thomas | L | 14 | 10.5 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vsKKentucky Christian | W | 20 | — | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vsMMorris | W | 13 | — | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ UAB | L | 12 | 10.7 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vsHigh Point | L | 5 | 12.9 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Charleston Southern | L | 7 | 8.7 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsLongwood | W | 10 | 11.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Radford | W | 10 | 11.9 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @Presbyterian | L | 8 | 9.5 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsWinthrop | L | 10 | 10.4 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @South Carolina Upstate | W | 8 | 10.4 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsGardner-Webb | W | 8 | 9.7 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Winthrop | L | 8 | 11.0 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina Upstate | W | 12 | 9.6 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Longwood | W | 7 | 12.5 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsPresbyterian | L | 7 | 9.0 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @High Point | L | 15 | 12.9 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsRadford | W | 8 | 11.5 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Gardner-Webb | W | 10 | 10.1 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsCharleston Southern | L | 8 | 8.1 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsLongwood (neutral) | W | 12 | 11.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsHigh Point (neutral) | L | 12 | 12.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2024-25, minus 0.3 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% in 2024-25, 81% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- St. Andrews, Bluefield, Virginia Lynchburg, Columbia International, Bryan, Kentucky Christian, Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.