Osasuna’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Osasuna was 0.80 goals under at home and 0.14 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.80 and 1.20, a difference of 0.40. Expected was 0.53 goals higher at home than away. All 3 games vs top-half teams were away. Both games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
Osasuna’s −0.93 at home vs away over expected ranks 38th of the 42 teams with 5 games on each side this season.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.80
away
+0.14
-101
A −0.93 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 17 times in 100.
plain
0.80
1.20
00.511.52
A −0.40 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | vs Levante | T | 0 | 1.63 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | @ Celta Vigo | W | 2 | 0.91 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Espanyol | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.85 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | T | 1 | 1.67 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Real Betis | L | 2 | 1.04 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 2 | 1.96 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ Sevilla | L | 0 | 1.36 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.