Osasuna’s expected goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Osasuna was 0.18 expected goals under vs a top-half team and 0.19 expected goals over vs a bottom-half team over its last 75 games, 30 games against 35. The plain averages are 0.83 and 1.34, a difference of 0.51.
Osasuna’s −0.37 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 108th of the 110 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
expected goals a game over expected
vs a top-half team
−0.18
vs a bottom-half team
+0.19
012
A −0.37 difference in expected goals over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
0.83
1.34
123
A −0.51 difference in expected goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
vs a top-half teamvs a bottom-half team
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Real Valladolid | W | 2.30 | 1.56 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0.05 | 0.97 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs Villarreal | T | 0.22 | 1.19 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | @ Sevilla | T | 0.44 | 0.91 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs Alavés | T | 1.94 | 0.98 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ Espanyol | T | 0.36 | 1.22 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Athletic Club | L | 0.42 | 0.94 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0.22 | 0.73 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Rayo Vallecano | T | 1.16 | 1.14 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | @ Las Palmas | T | 3.04 | 1.21 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 0.88 | 1.09 | |
| Feb 10, 2025 | @ Mallorca | T | 2.28 | 1.04 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsReal Madrid | T | 0.83 | 1.13 | |
| Feb 21, 2025 | @ Celta Vigo | L | 1.12 | 0.91 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Valencia | T | 1.02 | 1.15 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vs Getafe | L | 1.05 | 1.04 | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | @ Barcelona | L | 0.23 | 0.77 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | @Athletic Club | T | 0.42 | 0.74 | |
| Apr 7, 2025 | @ Leganés | T | 2.44 | 1.20 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | vs Girona | W | 1.44 | 1.23 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | @Real Valladolid | W | 1.20 | 1.42 | |
| Apr 24, 2025 | vsSevilla | W | 0.49 | 1.11 | |
| May 3, 2025 | @Villarreal | L | 0.56 | 0.98 | |
| May 11, 2025 | @ Real Betis | T | 1.77 | 0.99 | |
| May 15, 2025 | vsAtlético Madrid | W | 0.69 | 0.91 | |
| May 18, 2025 | vsEspanyol | W | 1.28 | 1.38 | |
| May 24, 2025 | @Alavés | T | 1.92 | 0.77 | |
| Aug 19, 2025 | @Real Madrid | L | 0.55 | 0.86 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | vsValencia | W | 1 | 1.14 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @Espanyol | L | 0.96 | 1.11 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsRayo Vallecano | W | 1.23 | 1.17 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Villarreal | L | 1.04 | 0.87 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vs Elche | T | 0.95 | 1.39 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @Real Betis | L | 1.10 | 0.88 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vsGetafe | W | 0.38 | 0.97 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Atlético Madrid | L | 1 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsCelta Vigo | L | 0.96 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Real Oviedo | T | 0.75 | 1.12 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Sevilla | L | 0.89 | 0.85 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsReal Sociedad | L | 1.12 | 1.35 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Mallorca | T | 0.95 | 1.10 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs Levante | W | 1.52 | 1.43 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @Barcelona | L | 0.35 | 0.87 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsAlavés | W | 1.24 | 1.16 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsAthletic Club | T | 0.68 | 0.94 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Girona | L | 1.06 | 1.09 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsReal Oviedo | W | 1.45 | 1.38 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Rayo Vallecano | W | 1.48 | 0.87 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsVillarreal | T | 1.16 | 1.15 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | @Celta Vigo | W | 0.93 | 0.89 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | @Elche | T | 0.95 | 1.10 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | W | 1.14 | 1.12 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Valencia | L | 0.33 | 0.88 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsMallorca | T | 2.56 | 1.31 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Real Sociedad | L | 0.65 | 1.08 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vsGirona | W | 1.39 | 1.36 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Alavés | T | 0.59 | 0.90 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsReal Betis | T | 0.76 | 1.18 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | @Athletic Club | L | 0.56 | 0.66 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsSevilla | W | 1.50 | 1.11 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsBarcelona | L | 0.71 | 1.14 | |
| May 8, 2026 | @Levante | L | 0.28 | 1.20 | |
| May 12, 2026 | vsAtlético Madrid | L | 2.33 | 1.15 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsEspanyol | L | 2.57 | 1.32 | |
| May 23, 2026 | @Getafe | L | 0.48 | 0.67 | |
| Aug 24, 2026 | vsLevante | T | 0.73 | 1.71 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | @Celta Vigo | W | 1.87 | 1.13 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vsGetafe | W | 0.79 | 1.33 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @Alavés | L | 0.96 | 1.24 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsEspanyol | L | 0.90 | 1.56 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | L | 0.47 | 0.95 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsRayo Vallecano | T | 0.96 | 1.51 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @Real Betis | L | 1.50 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 3.82 | 1.41 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @Sevilla | L | 0.66 | 1.22 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.11 in 2024-25, plus 0.16 in 2025-26, plus 0.13 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% in 2024-25, 86% in 2025-26, 63% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 10 games in 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither vs a top-half team nor vs a bottom-half team, and sit out.