Osasuna’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Osasuna was 0.30 points over at home and 0.46 points under away over its last 75 games, 37 games against 38. The plain averages are 1.70 and 0.63, a difference of 1.07.
Osasuna’s +0.76 at home vs away over expected ranks 7th of the 140 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.30
away
−0.46
02
A +0.76 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
1.70
0.63
0123
A +1.07 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Real Valladolid | W | 3 | 2.33 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.71 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs Villarreal | T | 1 | 1.11 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | @ Sevilla | T | 1 | 1.47 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs Alavés | T | 1 | 1.67 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ Espanyol | T | 1 | 1.49 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Athletic Club | L | 0 | 1.09 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.76 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Rayo Vallecano | T | 1 | 1.43 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | @ Las Palmas | T | 1 | 1.73 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 3 | 1.61 | |
| Feb 10, 2025 | @ Mallorca | T | 1 | 1.36 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsReal Madrid | T | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Feb 21, 2025 | @ Celta Vigo | L | 0 | 1.30 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Valencia | T | 1 | 1.56 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vs Getafe | L | 0 | 1.79 | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | @ Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.59 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | @Athletic Club | T | 1 | 0.79 | |
| Apr 7, 2025 | @ Leganés | T | 1 | 1.44 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | vs Girona | W | 3 | 1.78 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | @Real Valladolid | W | 3 | 2.08 | |
| Apr 24, 2025 | vsSevilla | W | 3 | 1.63 | |
| May 3, 2025 | @Villarreal | L | 0 | 0.90 | |
| May 11, 2025 | @ Real Betis | T | 1 | 1.03 | |
| May 15, 2025 | vsAtlético Madrid | W | 3 | 0.88 | |
| May 18, 2025 | vsEspanyol | W | 3 | 1.65 | |
| May 24, 2025 | @Alavés | T | 1 | 1.42 | |
| Aug 19, 2025 | @Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.40 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | vsValencia | W | 3 | 1.32 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @Espanyol | L | 0 | 1.17 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsRayo Vallecano | W | 3 | 1.21 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Villarreal | L | 0 | 0.90 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vs Elche | T | 1 | 1.47 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.76 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vsGetafe | W | 3 | 1.37 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.66 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsCelta Vigo | L | 0 | 1.30 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Real Oviedo | T | 1 | 1.46 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Sevilla | L | 0 | 1.30 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsReal Sociedad | L | 0 | 1.45 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Mallorca | T | 1 | 1.23 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs Levante | W | 3 | 1.49 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.35 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsAlavés | W | 3 | 1.45 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsAthletic Club | T | 1 | 1.51 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Girona | L | 0 | 1.18 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsReal Oviedo | W | 3 | 1.72 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Rayo Vallecano | W | 3 | 0.86 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsVillarreal | T | 1 | 1.21 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | @Celta Vigo | W | 3 | 0.82 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | @Elche | T | 1 | 1.12 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | W | 3 | 0.63 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Valencia | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsMallorca | T | 1 | 1.58 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Real Sociedad | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vsGirona | W | 3 | 1.40 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Alavés | T | 1 | 1.19 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsReal Betis | T | 1 | 1.07 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | @Athletic Club | L | 0 | 1.20 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsSevilla | W | 3 | 1.51 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsBarcelona | L | 0 | 0.70 | |
| May 8, 2026 | @Levante | L | 0 | 1.27 | |
| May 12, 2026 | vsAtlético Madrid | L | 0 | 1.01 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsEspanyol | L | 0 | 1.51 | |
| May 23, 2026 | @Getafe | L | 0 | 1.15 | |
| Aug 24, 2026 | vsLevante | T | 1 | 1.48 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | @Celta Vigo | W | 3 | 1.03 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vsGetafe | W | 3 | 1.36 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @Alavés | L | 0 | 1.42 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsEspanyol | L | 0 | 1.70 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.78 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsRayo Vallecano | T | 1 | 1.46 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.87 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 3 | 1.47 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @Sevilla | L | 0 | 1.10 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.14 in 2024-25, plus 0.21 in 2025-26, plus 0.25 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% in 2024-25, 79% in 2025-26, 43% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.