Manchester United’s points vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Manchester United was 0.98 points over vs a top-half team and 0.60 points under vs a bottom-half team in 2025-26, 16 games against 17. The plain averages are 2.56 and 1.35, a difference of 1.21. All 3 games without Bruno Fernandes were vs a bottom-half team.
Manchester United’s +1.58 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 1st of the 96 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
points a game over expected
A +1.58 difference in points over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +1.21 difference in points vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2025 | vs Arsenal | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @ Fulham | T | 1 | 1.68 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Burnley | W | 3 | 2.50 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ Manchester City | L | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Chelsea | W | 3 | 1.90 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Brentford | L | 0 | 1.61 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Sunderland | W | 3 | 1.79 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ Liverpool | W | 3 | 1.43 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 3 | 1.83 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Nottingham Forest | T | 1 | 1.76 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | T | 1 | 1.73 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Everton | L | 0 | 2.07 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Crystal Palace | W | 3 | 1.63 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs West Ham United | T | 1 | 2.26 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 3 | 2.17 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vs AFC Bournemouth | T | 1 | 1.68 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Aston Villa | L | 0 | 1.43 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Newcastle United | W | 3 | 1.95 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vsWolverhampton Wanderers | T | 1 | 2.61 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Leeds United | T | 1 | 1.63 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @Burnley | T | 1 | 2.24 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsManchester City | W | 3 | 1.46 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Arsenal | W | 3 | 0.88 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsFulham | W | 3 | 1.94 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | W | 3 | 2.00 | |
| Feb 10, 2026 | @West Ham United | T | 1 | 1.91 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | @Everton | W | 3 | 1.59 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsCrystal Palace | W | 3 | 1.98 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @Newcastle United | L | 0 | 1.72 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsAston Villa | W | 3 | 1.65 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | @AFC Bournemouth | T | 1 | 1.33 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vsLeeds United | L | 0 | 2.02 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @Chelsea | W | 3 | 1.55 | |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vsBrentford | W | 3 | 1.83 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsLiverpool | W | 3 | 1.77 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @Sunderland | T | 1 | 1.53 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsNottingham Forest | W | 3 | 2.02 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 3 | 1.48 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.