Manchester United’s points vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Manchester United was 0.45 points over vs a top-half team and 0.58 points under vs a bottom-half team over its last 75 games, 33 games against 29. The plain averages are 1.67 and 1.17, a difference of 0.49. Expected was 0.53 points lower vs a top-half team than vs a bottom-half team.
Manchester United’s +1.03 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 1st of the 119 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
points a game over expected
vs a top-half team
+0.45
vs a bottom-half team
−0.58
-202
A +1.03 difference in points over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up once in 100.
plain
1.67
1.17
0123
A +0.49 difference in points vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
vs a top-half teamvs a bottom-half team
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.48 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Nottingham Forest | L | 0 | 1.09 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ Manchester City | W | 3 | 0.72 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs AFC Bournemouth | L | 0 | 1.22 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | @ Wolverhampton Wanderers | L | 0 | 1.39 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Newcastle United | L | 0 | 1.12 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Liverpool | T | 1 | 0.35 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs Southampton | W | 3 | 2.16 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 1.07 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ Fulham | W | 3 | 0.92 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs Crystal Palace | L | 0 | 1.22 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 | 1.50 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @ Everton | T | 1 | 1.00 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 3 | 1.85 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsArsenal | T | 1 | 0.69 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | @ Leicester City | W | 3 | 1.60 | |
| Apr 1, 2025 | @Nottingham Forest | L | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | vsManchester City | T | 1 | 1.05 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @Newcastle United | L | 0 | 0.87 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | vsWolverhampton Wanderers | L | 0 | 1.64 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @AFC Bournemouth | T | 1 | 0.92 | |
| May 4, 2025 | @ Brentford | L | 0 | 1.04 | |
| May 11, 2025 | vs West Ham United | L | 0 | 1.53 | |
| May 16, 2025 | @ Chelsea | L | 0 | 0.73 | |
| May 25, 2025 | vs Aston Villa | W | 3 | 0.88 | |
| Aug 17, 2025 | vsArsenal | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @Fulham | T | 1 | 1.68 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Burnley | W | 3 | 2.50 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @Manchester City | L | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsChelsea | W | 3 | 1.90 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Brentford | L | 0 | 1.61 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Sunderland | W | 3 | 1.79 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @Liverpool | W | 3 | 1.43 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsBrighton & Hove Albion | W | 3 | 1.83 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Nottingham Forest | T | 1 | 1.76 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Tottenham Hotspur | T | 1 | 1.73 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vsEverton | L | 0 | 2.07 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @Crystal Palace | W | 3 | 1.63 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vsWest Ham United | T | 1 | 2.26 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 3 | 2.17 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vsAFC Bournemouth | T | 1 | 1.68 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @Aston Villa | L | 0 | 1.43 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vsNewcastle United | W | 3 | 1.95 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vsWolverhampton Wanderers | T | 1 | 2.61 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Leeds United | T | 1 | 1.63 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @Burnley | T | 1 | 2.24 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsManchester City | W | 3 | 1.46 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Arsenal | W | 3 | 0.88 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsFulham | W | 3 | 1.94 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | W | 3 | 2.00 | |
| Feb 10, 2026 | @West Ham United | T | 1 | 1.91 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | @Everton | W | 3 | 1.59 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsCrystal Palace | W | 3 | 1.98 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @Newcastle United | L | 0 | 1.72 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsAston Villa | W | 3 | 1.65 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | @AFC Bournemouth | T | 1 | 1.33 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vsLeeds United | L | 0 | 2.02 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @Chelsea | W | 3 | 1.55 | |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vsBrentford | W | 3 | 1.83 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsLiverpool | W | 3 | 1.77 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @Sunderland | T | 1 | 1.53 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsNottingham Forest | W | 3 | 2.02 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 3 | 1.48 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Hull City | L | 0 | 1.07 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vsIpswich Town | W | 3 | 1.24 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @Everton | T | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Sabah FK | W | 3 | 1.75 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsManchester City | L | 0 | 1.11 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @Fulham | T | 1 | 1.19 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | T | 1 | 1.31 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.80 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @Leeds United | T | 1 | 0.89 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Como | L | 0 | 1.18 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsAFC Bournemouth | L | 0 | 1.32 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Chelsea | L | 0 | 0.93 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.14 in 2024-25, plus 0.21 in 2025-26, plus 0.25 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% in 2024-25, 79% in 2025-26, 43% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 13 games in 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither vs a top-half team nor vs a bottom-half team, and sit out.