Genoa’s shots after an international break and between breaks
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Through Genoa’s game on Aug 22, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Genoa was 4.6 shots over after an international break and 0.7 shots under between breaks over its last 75 games, 8 games against 63. The plain averages are 14.5 and 10.2, a difference of 4.3. All 4 games without Johan Vásquez were between breaks. All 5 games without Morten Frendrup were between breaks.
Genoa’s +5.4 after an international break vs between breaks over expected ranks 1st of the 76 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Aug 22, 2026.
shots a game over expected
A +5.4 difference in shots over expected after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +4.3 difference in shots after an international break vs between breaks is unusual: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | shots | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2024 | vs Hellas Verona | L | 11 | 12.3 | |
| Sep 15, 2024 | vs AS Roma | T | 19 | 10.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | @ Venezia | L | 9 | 11.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2024 | vs Juventus | L | 8 | 10.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | @ Atalanta | L | 7 | 7.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | vs Bologna | T | 10 | 7.7 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ Lazio | L | 6 | 7.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | vs Fiorentina | L | 13 | 10.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ Parma | W | 17 | 10.8 | |
| Nov 7, 2024 | vs Como | T | 8 | 9.5 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs Cagliari | T | 19 | 11.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ Udinese | W | 14 | 9.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Torino | T | 5 | 13.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ AC Milan | T | 5 | 8.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Napoli | L | 10 | 8.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ Empoli | W | 13 | 10.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Lecce | T | 4 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vsParma | W | 12 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2025 | @AS Roma | L | 7 | 8.9 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vs Monza | W | 18 | 13.3 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @Fiorentina | L | 18 | 8.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Torino | T | 6 | 10.8 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | vsVenezia | W | 13 | 13.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @ Internazionale | L | 10 | 8.2 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vsEmpoli | T | 4 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | @Cagliari | T | 8 | 10.1 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | vsLecce | W | 8 | 13.1 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @Juventus | L | 8 | 8.0 | |
| Apr 4, 2025 | vsUdinese | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @Hellas Verona | T | 5 | 10.5 | |
| Apr 23, 2025 | vsLazio | L | 8 | 9.4 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @Como | L | 4 | 7.6 | |
| May 5, 2025 | vsAC Milan | L | 11 | 10.7 | |
| May 11, 2025 | @Napoli | T | 8 | 6.8 | |
| May 17, 2025 | vsAtalanta | L | 13 | 9.3 | |
| May 24, 2025 | @Bologna | W | 5 | 5.8 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vsLecce | T | 5 | 13.5 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vsJuventus | L | 10 | 11.9 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @Como | T | 12 | 7.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Bologna | L | 7 | 8.6 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | vsLazio | L | 17 | 13.5 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @Napoli | L | 6 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsParma | T | 23 | 14.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @Torino | L | 11 | 11.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Cremonese | L | 16 | 15.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Sassuolo | W | 16 | 11.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsFiorentina | T | 10 | 14.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Cagliari | T | 13 | 10.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsHellas Verona | W | 15 | 13.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @Udinese | W | 12 | 11.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsInternazionale | L | 5 | 10.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsAtalanta | L | 6 | 12.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @AS Roma | L | 10 | 8.0 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Pisa | T | 12 | 14.7 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @AC Milan | T | 7 | 9.8 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vsCagliari | W | 11 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Parma | T | 11 | 11.9 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsBologna | W | 8 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @Lazio | L | 16 | 10.9 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsNapoli | L | 12 | 11.1 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Cremonese | T | 19 | 12.8 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsTorino | W | 16 | 14.1 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Internazionale | L | 6 | 7.7 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsAS Roma | W | 11 | 10.6 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | W | 11 | 11.4 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsUdinese | L | 18 | 13.4 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @Juventus | L | 12 | 9.2 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsSassuolo | W | 14 | 14.7 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Pisa | W | 13 | 12.0 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsComo | L | 9 | 10.0 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Atalanta | T | 7 | 9.7 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Fiorentina | T | 9 | 11.6 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 11 | 12.3 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Lecce | L | 8 | 10.7 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | vsNapoli | L | 11 | 13.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.1 in 2024-25, plus 1.4 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 4 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after an international break nor between breaks, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Aug 22.