Genoa’s shots after an international break and between breaks
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Genoa was 3.5 shots over after an international break and 0.8 shots under between breaks over its last 75 games, 7 games against 64. The plain averages are 13.9 and 10.4, a difference of 3.5. All 4 games without Morten Frendrup were between breaks. All 5 games without Johan Vásquez were between breaks.
Genoa’s +4.3 after an international break vs between breaks over expected ranks 3rd of the 73 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
shots a game over expected
A +4.3 difference in shots over expected after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +3.5 difference in shots after an international break vs between breaks is unusual: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | shots | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2024 | vs Como | T | 8 | 9.5 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs Cagliari | T | 19 | 11.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ Udinese | W | 14 | 9.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Torino | T | 5 | 13.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ AC Milan | T | 5 | 8.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Napoli | L | 10 | 8.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ Empoli | W | 13 | 10.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Lecce | T | 4 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Parma | W | 12 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2025 | @ AS Roma | L | 7 | 8.9 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vs Monza | W | 18 | 13.3 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Fiorentina | L | 18 | 8.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Torino | T | 6 | 10.8 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | vs Venezia | W | 13 | 13.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @ Internazionale | L | 10 | 8.2 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vsEmpoli | T | 4 | 12.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | @Cagliari | T | 8 | 10.1 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | vsLecce | W | 8 | 13.1 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @ Juventus | L | 8 | 8.0 | |
| Apr 4, 2025 | vsUdinese | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @ Hellas Verona | T | 5 | 10.5 | |
| Apr 23, 2025 | vs Lazio | L | 8 | 9.4 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @Como | L | 4 | 7.6 | |
| May 5, 2025 | vsAC Milan | L | 11 | 10.7 | |
| May 11, 2025 | @Napoli | T | 8 | 6.8 | |
| May 17, 2025 | vs Atalanta | L | 13 | 9.3 | |
| May 24, 2025 | @ Bologna | W | 5 | 5.8 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vsLecce | T | 5 | 13.5 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vsJuventus | L | 10 | 11.9 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @Como | T | 12 | 7.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Bologna | L | 7 | 8.6 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | vsLazio | L | 17 | 13.5 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @Napoli | L | 6 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsParma | T | 23 | 14.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @Torino | L | 11 | 11.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Cremonese | L | 16 | 15.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Sassuolo | W | 16 | 11.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsFiorentina | T | 10 | 14.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Cagliari | T | 13 | 10.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsHellas Verona | W | 15 | 13.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @Udinese | W | 12 | 11.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsInternazionale | L | 5 | 10.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsAtalanta | L | 6 | 12.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @AS Roma | L | 10 | 8.0 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Pisa | T | 12 | 14.7 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @AC Milan | T | 7 | 9.8 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vsCagliari | W | 11 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Parma | T | 11 | 11.9 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsBologna | W | 8 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @Lazio | L | 16 | 10.9 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsNapoli | L | 12 | 11.1 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Cremonese | T | 19 | 12.8 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsTorino | W | 16 | 14.1 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Internazionale | L | 6 | 7.7 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsAS Roma | W | 11 | 10.6 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | W | 11 | 11.4 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsUdinese | L | 18 | 13.4 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @Juventus | L | 12 | 9.2 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsSassuolo | W | 14 | 14.7 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Pisa | W | 13 | 12.0 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsComo | L | 9 | 10.0 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Atalanta | T | 7 | 9.7 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Fiorentina | T | 9 | 11.6 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 11 | 12.3 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Lecce | L | 8 | 10.7 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | vsNapoli | L | 11 | 13.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Lazio | L | 8 | 11.0 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsComo | L | 11 | 11.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Frosinone | T | 17 | 15.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @Parma | L | 12 | 14.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsFiorentina | W | 10 | 11.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @AS Roma | L | 9 | 8.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsVenezia | W | 7 | 14.4 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vsJuventus | W | 14 | 8.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @Lecce | W | 13 | 12.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.1 in 2024-25, plus 1.4 in 2025-26, plus 1.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26, 65% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 4 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after an international break nor between breaks, and sit out.