Brest’s goals after an international break and between breaks
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Through Brest’s game on Oct 10, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Brest was 1.35 goals over after an international break and 0.23 goals under between breaks over its last 75 games, 8 games against 61. The plain averages are 2.75 and 1.15, a difference of 1.60. All 6 games without Kenny Lala were between breaks. All 7 games without Ludovic Ajorque were between breaks.
Brest’s +1.57 after an international break vs between breaks over expected ranks 3rd of the 87 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Oct 10, 2026.
goals a game over expected
A +1.57 difference in goals over expected after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up once in 100.
A +1.60 difference in goals after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | vs Stade Rennais | T | 1 | 1.48 | |
| Oct 23, 2024 | vs Bayer Leverkusen | T | 1 | 1.38 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Stade de Reims | W | 2 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Nice | L | 0 | 1.33 | |
| Nov 6, 2024 | @ Sparta Prague | W | 2 | 2.14 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ Montpellier | L | 1 | 1.98 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ AS Monaco | L | 2 | 1.11 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Barcelona | L | 0 | 1.20 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Strasbourg | W | 3 | 1.26 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Lille | L | 1 | 1.00 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | vs PSV Eindhoven | W | 1 | 1.79 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Nantes | W | 4 | 1.39 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Angers | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs Lyon | W | 2 | 1.36 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @Stade Rennais | W | 2 | 1.28 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | @ Shakhtar Donetsk | L | 0 | 1.72 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ Le Havre AC | W | 1 | 1.81 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | L | 0 | 1.29 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 2 | 0.98 | |
| Feb 7, 2025 | @Nantes | W | 2 | 1.31 | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | vsParis Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.05 | |
| Feb 14, 2025 | vs AJ Auxerre | T | 2 | 1.46 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.89 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @Strasbourg | T | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @Lyon | L | 1 | 1.25 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsAngers | W | 2 | 1.49 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vsStade de Reims | T | 0 | 1.43 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | @ Toulouse | W | 4 | 1.02 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | vsAS Monaco | W | 2 | 1.26 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @ Saint-Étienne | T | 3 | 1.87 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | vs Lens | L | 1 | 1.21 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @ Marseille | L | 1 | 1.28 | |
| May 4, 2025 | vsMontpellier | W | 1 | 2.14 | |
| May 10, 2025 | vsLille | W | 2 | 1.12 | |
| May 17, 2025 | @Nice | L | 0 | 1.17 | |
| Aug 17, 2025 | vsLille | T | 3 | 1.11 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @Toulouse | L | 0 | 1.19 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @Lens | L | 1 | 0.91 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs Paris FC | L | 1 | 1.50 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsNice | W | 4 | 1.58 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @Angers | W | 2 | 1.12 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsNantes | T | 0 | 1.57 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ Lorient | T | 3 | 1.17 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsParis Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @Le Havre AC | L | 0 | 1.12 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vsLyon | T | 0 | 1.32 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Marseille | L | 0 | 1.22 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Metz | W | 3 | 2.00 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @Strasbourg | W | 2 | 1.14 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsAS Monaco | W | 1 | 1.59 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @Stade Rennais | L | 1 | 1.26 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsAJ Auxerre | W | 2 | 1.29 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Lyon | L | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsToulouse | L | 0 | 1.45 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Nice | T | 2 | 1.42 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsLorient | W | 2 | 1.48 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Lille | T | 1 | 0.94 | |
| Feb 20, 2026 | vsMarseille | W | 2 | 1.40 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Metz | W | 1 | 1.83 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsLe Havre AC | W | 2 | 1.29 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @AS Monaco | L | 0 | 1.37 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @AJ Auxerre | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsStade Rennais | L | 3 | 1.42 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Nantes | T | 1 | 1.26 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vsLens | T | 3 | 1.08 | |
| May 3, 2026 | @Paris FC | L | 0 | 1.29 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.80 | |
| May 13, 2026 | vsStrasbourg | L | 1 | 1.45 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsAngers | T | 1 | 1.43 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Le Mans | T | 2 | 1.63 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsToulouse | T | 2 | 1.70 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Le Havre AC | W | 2 | 1.75 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsParis Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.52 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @AJ Auxerre | L | 1 | 2.13 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsAngers | W | 5 | 1.52 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.10 in 2024-25, plus 0.16 in 2025-26, plus 0.21 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024-25, 75% in 2025-26, 44% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 6 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after an international break nor between breaks, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 10.