Brest’s goals after an international break and between breaks
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Brest was 1.61 goals over after an international break and 0.23 goals under between breaks over its last 75 games, 7 games against 62. The plain averages are 3.00 and 1.15, a difference of 1.85. All 6 games without Kenny Lala were between breaks. All 7 games without Ludovic Ajorque were between breaks.
Brest’s +1.84 after an international break vs between breaks over expected ranks 2nd of the 85 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
goals a game over expected
A +1.84 difference in goals over expected after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +1.85 difference in goals after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Stade de Reims | W | 2 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Nice | L | 0 | 1.33 | |
| Nov 6, 2024 | @ Sparta Prague | W | 2 | 2.14 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ Montpellier | L | 1 | 1.98 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ AS Monaco | L | 2 | 1.11 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Barcelona | L | 0 | 1.20 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Strasbourg | W | 3 | 1.26 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Lille | L | 1 | 1.00 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | vs PSV Eindhoven | W | 1 | 1.79 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Nantes | W | 4 | 1.39 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Angers | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs Lyon | W | 2 | 1.36 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ Stade Rennais | W | 2 | 1.28 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | @ Shakhtar Donetsk | L | 0 | 1.72 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ Le Havre AC | W | 1 | 1.81 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | L | 0 | 1.29 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 2 | 0.98 | |
| Feb 7, 2025 | @Nantes | W | 2 | 1.31 | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | vsParis Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.05 | |
| Feb 14, 2025 | vs AJ Auxerre | T | 2 | 1.46 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.89 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @Strasbourg | T | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @Lyon | L | 1 | 1.25 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsAngers | W | 2 | 1.49 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vsStade de Reims | T | 0 | 1.43 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | @ Toulouse | W | 4 | 1.02 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | vsAS Monaco | W | 2 | 1.26 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @ Saint-Étienne | T | 3 | 1.87 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | vs Lens | L | 1 | 1.21 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @ Marseille | L | 1 | 1.28 | |
| May 4, 2025 | vsMontpellier | W | 1 | 2.14 | |
| May 10, 2025 | vsLille | W | 2 | 1.12 | |
| May 17, 2025 | @Nice | L | 0 | 1.17 | |
| Aug 17, 2025 | vsLille | T | 3 | 1.11 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @Toulouse | L | 0 | 1.19 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @Lens | L | 1 | 0.91 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs Paris FC | L | 1 | 1.50 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsNice | W | 4 | 1.58 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @Angers | W | 2 | 1.12 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsNantes | T | 0 | 1.57 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ Lorient | T | 3 | 1.17 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsParis Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @Le Havre AC | L | 0 | 1.12 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vsLyon | T | 0 | 1.32 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Marseille | L | 0 | 1.22 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Metz | W | 3 | 2.00 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @Strasbourg | W | 2 | 1.14 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsAS Monaco | W | 1 | 1.59 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @Stade Rennais | L | 1 | 1.26 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsAJ Auxerre | W | 2 | 1.29 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Lyon | L | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsToulouse | L | 0 | 1.45 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Nice | T | 2 | 1.42 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsLorient | W | 2 | 1.48 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Lille | T | 1 | 0.94 | |
| Feb 20, 2026 | vsMarseille | W | 2 | 1.40 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Metz | W | 1 | 1.83 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsLe Havre AC | W | 2 | 1.29 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @AS Monaco | L | 0 | 1.37 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @AJ Auxerre | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsStade Rennais | L | 3 | 1.42 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Nantes | T | 1 | 1.26 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vsLens | T | 3 | 1.08 | |
| May 3, 2026 | @Paris FC | L | 0 | 1.29 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.80 | |
| May 13, 2026 | vsStrasbourg | L | 1 | 1.45 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsAngers | T | 1 | 1.43 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Le Mans | T | 2 | 1.63 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsToulouse | T | 2 | 1.70 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Le Havre AC | W | 2 | 1.75 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsParis Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.52 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @AJ Auxerre | L | 1 | 2.13 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsAngers | W | 5 | 1.52 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Lille | T | 1 | 1.33 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsNice | L | 1 | 1.68 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.10 in 2024-25, plus 0.16 in 2025-26, plus 0.21 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024-25, 75% in 2025-26, 44% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 6 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after an international break nor between breaks, and sit out.