Bologna’s yellow cards in the Champions League and in the league
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Through Bologna’s game on May 23, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bologna was 1.8 yellow cards over in the Champions League and 0.2 yellow cards under in the league over its last 75 games, 6 games against 69. The plain averages are 4.0 and 1.7, a difference of 2.3.
Bologna’s +2.0 in the Champions League vs in the league over expected ranks 1st of the 30 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through May 23, 2026.
yellow cards a game over expected
A +2.0 difference in yellow cards over expected in the Champions League vs in the league is rare: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +2.3 difference in yellow cards in the Champions League vs in the league is rare: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | yellow cards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Genoa | T | 0 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 22, 2024 | @ Aston Villa | L | 4 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 29, 2024 | @ Cagliari | W | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Lecce | W | 2 | 2.0 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs AS Monaco | L | 3 | 2.2 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ AS Roma | W | 3 | 2.2 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ Lazio | L | 2 | 2.6 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | vs Lille | L | 3 | 2.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Venezia | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Juventus | T | 4 | 1.8 | |
| Dec 11, 2024 | @ Benfica | T | 5 | 2.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Fiorentina | W | 2 | 2.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Torino | W | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Hellas Verona | L | 2 | 1.5 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vsAS Roma | T | 4 | 2.0 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | @ Internazionale | T | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Monza | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | vs Borussia Dortmund | W | 4 | 1.7 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Empoli | T | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | @ Sporting CP | T | 5 | 2.4 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Como | W | 3 | 2.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @Lecce | T | 2 | 2.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2025 | vsTorino | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @ Parma | L | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vs AC Milan | W | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vsCagliari | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | @Hellas Verona | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vsLazio | W | 2 | 2.5 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @Venezia | W | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Apr 7, 2025 | vs Napoli | T | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @ Atalanta | L | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | vsInternazionale | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Apr 28, 2025 | @ Udinese | T | 2 | 1.7 | |
| May 4, 2025 | vsJuventus | T | 1 | 1.8 | |
| May 9, 2025 | @AC Milan | L | 2 | 2.1 | |
| May 18, 2025 | @Fiorentina | L | 1 | 2.3 | |
| May 24, 2025 | vsGenoa | L | 5 | 1.8 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @AS Roma | L | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsComo | W | 4 | 1.9 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @AC Milan | L | 2 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsGenoa | W | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @Lecce | T | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs Pisa | W | 0 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @Cagliari | W | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @Fiorentina | T | 4 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsTorino | T | 2 | 1.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @Parma | W | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsNapoli | W | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Udinese | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vs Cremonese | L | 0 | 1.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @Lazio | T | 3 | 2.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsJuventus | L | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs Sassuolo | T | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @Internazionale | L | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsAtalanta | L | 0 | 1.5 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Como | T | 3 | 2.1 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsFiorentina | L | 3 | 1.9 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Genoa | L | 2 | 2.2 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 3 | 1.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsParma | L | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Torino | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | vsUdinese | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @Pisa | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsHellas Verona | L | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Sassuolo | W | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsLazio | L | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Cremonese | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsLecce | W | 0 | 1.7 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Juventus | L | 0 | 2.0 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsAS Roma | L | 0 | 1.9 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsCagliari | T | 2 | 1.6 | |
| May 11, 2026 | @Napoli | W | 4 | 1.7 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Atalanta | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| May 23, 2026 | vsInternazionale | T | 0 | 1.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024-25, minus 0.1 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 63% in 2024-25, 56% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.