Bologna’s yellow cards in the Champions League and in the league
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bologna was 2.5 yellow cards over in the Champions League and 0.1 yellow cards under in the league over its last 75 games, 3 games against 72. The plain averages are 4.7 and 1.7, a difference of 2.9.
3 games in the Champions League is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
yellow cards a game over expected
in the Champions League
+2.5
in the league
−0.1
-202
A +2.6 difference in yellow cards over expected in the Champions League vs in the league is unusual: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up once in 100.
plain
4.7
1.7
024
A +2.9 difference in yellow cards in the Champions League vs in the league is unusual: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up once in 100.
The games
in the Champions Leaguein the league
| Side | Date | Game | Result | yellow cards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2024 | @ Benfica | T | 5 | 2.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Fiorentina | W | 2 | 2.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Torino | W | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Hellas Verona | L | 2 | 1.5 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs AS Roma | T | 4 | 2.0 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | @ Internazionale | T | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs Monza | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | vs Borussia Dortmund | W | 4 | 1.7 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Empoli | T | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | @ Sporting CP | T | 5 | 2.4 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Como | W | 3 | 2.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @ Lecce | T | 2 | 2.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2025 | vsTorino | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @ Parma | L | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vs AC Milan | W | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Cagliari | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | @Hellas Verona | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vs Lazio | W | 2 | 2.5 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @ Venezia | W | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Apr 7, 2025 | vs Napoli | T | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @ Atalanta | L | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | vsInternazionale | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Apr 28, 2025 | @ Udinese | T | 2 | 1.7 | |
| May 4, 2025 | vs Juventus | T | 1 | 1.8 | |
| May 9, 2025 | @AC Milan | L | 2 | 2.1 | |
| May 18, 2025 | @Fiorentina | L | 1 | 2.3 | |
| May 24, 2025 | vs Genoa | L | 5 | 1.8 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @AS Roma | L | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsComo | W | 4 | 1.9 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @AC Milan | L | 2 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsGenoa | W | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @Lecce | T | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs Pisa | W | 0 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @Cagliari | W | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @Fiorentina | T | 4 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsTorino | T | 2 | 1.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @Parma | W | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsNapoli | W | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Udinese | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vs Cremonese | L | 0 | 1.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @Lazio | T | 3 | 2.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsJuventus | L | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs Sassuolo | T | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @Internazionale | L | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsAtalanta | L | 0 | 1.5 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Como | T | 3 | 2.1 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsFiorentina | L | 3 | 1.9 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Genoa | L | 2 | 2.2 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 3 | 1.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsParma | L | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Torino | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | vsUdinese | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @Pisa | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsHellas Verona | L | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Sassuolo | W | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsLazio | L | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Cremonese | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsLecce | W | 0 | 1.7 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Juventus | L | 0 | 2.0 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsAS Roma | L | 0 | 1.9 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsCagliari | T | 2 | 1.6 | |
| May 11, 2026 | @Napoli | W | 4 | 1.7 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Atalanta | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| May 23, 2026 | vsInternazionale | T | 0 | 1.6 | |
| Aug 24, 2026 | vsLazio | L | 4 | 2.1 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @Atalanta | L | 0 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vsSassuolo | T | 3 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @Napoli | L | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsTorino | T | 0 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @Lecce | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsInternazionale | L | 4 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Cagliari | W | 1 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @AC Milan | W | 2 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMonza | W | 4 | 1.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024-25, minus 0.1 in 2025-26, minus 0.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 63% in 2024-25, 56% in 2025-26, 25% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.