Aston Villa’s goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Through Aston Villa’s game on Oct 10, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Aston Villa was 0.51 goals over vs a top-half team and 0.30 goals under vs a bottom-half team over its last 75 games, 30 games against 27. The plain averages are 1.87 and 1.33, a difference of 0.53.
Aston Villa’s +0.81 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 1st of the 119 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Oct 10, 2026.
goals a game over expected
vs a top-half team
+0.51
vs a bottom-half team
−0.30
02
A +0.81 difference in goals over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up once in 100.
plain
1.87
1.33
01234
A +0.53 difference in goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
vs a top-half teamvs a bottom-half team
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2024 | @ RB Leipzig | W | 3 | 1.75 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ Nottingham Forest | L | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Manchester City | W | 2 | 1.53 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | @ Newcastle United | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | T | 2 | 1.68 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Leicester City | W | 2 | 2.09 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | @ Everton | W | 1 | 1.21 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ Arsenal | T | 2 | 0.92 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | @ AS Monaco | L | 0 | 1.57 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vs West Ham United | T | 1 | 1.76 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vs Celtic | W | 4 | 1.72 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ Wolverhampton Wanderers | L | 0 | 1.80 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vs Ipswich Town | T | 1 | 2.17 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | vs Liverpool | T | 2 | 1.22 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vs Chelsea | W | 2 | 1.34 | |
| Feb 25, 2025 | @ Crystal Palace | L | 1 | 1.37 | |
| Mar 4, 2025 | @ Club Brugge | W | 3 | 1.50 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @ Brentford | W | 1 | 1.52 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsClub Brugge | W | 3 | 1.67 | |
| Apr 2, 2025 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 3 | 1.48 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | vsNottingham Forest | W | 2 | 1.39 | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | L | 1 | 1.25 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | @ Southampton | W | 3 | 2.01 | |
| Apr 15, 2025 | vsParis Saint-Germain | W | 3 | 1.34 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | vsNewcastle United | W | 4 | 1.35 | |
| Apr 22, 2025 | @Manchester City | L | 1 | 1.40 | |
| May 3, 2025 | vs Fulham | W | 1 | 1.60 | |
| May 10, 2025 | @ AFC Bournemouth | W | 1 | 1.27 | |
| May 16, 2025 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | W | 2 | 1.81 | |
| May 25, 2025 | @ Manchester United | L | 0 | 1.46 | |
| Aug 16, 2025 | vsNewcastle United | T | 0 | 1.70 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @Brentford | L | 0 | 1.39 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vsCrystal Palace | L | 0 | 1.61 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Everton | T | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ Sunderland | T | 1 | 1.25 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsFulham | W | 3 | 1.49 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs Burnley | W | 2 | 2.03 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @Tottenham Hotspur | W | 2 | 1.40 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsManchester City | W | 1 | 1.33 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Liverpool | L | 0 | 1.33 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsAFC Bournemouth | W | 4 | 1.52 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Leeds United | W | 2 | 1.38 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsWolverhampton Wanderers | W | 1 | 1.91 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 4 | 1.09 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsArsenal | W | 2 | 1.00 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @West Ham United | W | 3 | 1.52 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsManchester United | W | 2 | 1.54 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @Chelsea | W | 2 | 1.38 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @Arsenal | L | 1 | 0.77 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsNottingham Forest | W | 3 | 1.49 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @Crystal Palace | T | 0 | 1.35 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsEverton | L | 0 | 1.60 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Newcastle United | W | 2 | 1.37 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsBrentford | L | 0 | 1.65 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @AFC Bournemouth | T | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsBrighton & Hove Albion | W | 1 | 1.48 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsLeeds United | T | 1 | 1.68 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @Wolverhampton Wanderers | L | 0 | 1.69 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsChelsea | L | 1 | 1.68 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Manchester United | L | 1 | 1.32 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsWest Ham United | W | 2 | 1.83 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @Nottingham Forest | T | 1 | 1.32 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsSunderland | W | 4 | 1.38 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @Fulham | L | 0 | 1.36 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | L | 1 | 1.70 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Burnley | T | 2 | 1.77 | |
| May 15, 2026 | vsLiverpool | W | 4 | 1.44 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Manchester City | W | 2 | 1.04 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 1.26 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vsArsenal | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Hull City | T | 0 | 1.53 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @Club Brugge | W | 3 | 1.59 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNottingham Forest | L | 1 | 1.76 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Tottenham Hotspur | W | 3 | 1.23 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsBrentford | T | 2 | 1.55 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.10 in 2024-25, plus 0.16 in 2025-26, plus 0.21 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024-25, 75% in 2025-26, 44% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 18 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither vs a top-half team nor vs a bottom-half team, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 10.