Arsenal’s shots conceded in the Champions League and in the league
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arsenal was 2.1 shots over in the Champions League and 1.4 shots under in the league in 2025-26, 15 games against 38. The plain averages are 11.7 and 8.2, a difference of 3.5.
Arsenal’s +3.5 in the Champions League vs in the league over expected ranks 2nd of the 22 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
shots conceded a game over expected
in the Champions League
+2.1
in the league
−1.4
-505
A +3.5 difference in shots conceded over expected in the Champions League vs in the league is rare: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
11.7
8.2
5101520
A +3.5 difference in shots conceded in the Champions League vs in the league is unusual: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up once in 100.
The games
in the Champions Leaguein the league
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Shots against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2025 | @ Manchester United | W | 22 | 13.3 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Leeds United | W | 3 | 8.6 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @ Liverpool | L | 9 | 14.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Nottingham Forest | W | 5 | 8.5 | |
| Sep 16, 2025 | @ Athletic Club | W | 11 | 10.3 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs Manchester City | T | 5 | 10.9 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ Newcastle United | W | 8 | 11.5 | |
| Oct 1, 2025 | vs Olympiacos | W | 10 | 6.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs West Ham United | W | 4 | 6.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Fulham | W | 9 | 11.1 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Atlético Madrid | W | 11 | 8.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Crystal Palace | W | 7 | 7.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Burnley | W | 3 | 8.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Slavia Prague | W | 9 | 9.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Sunderland | T | 6 | 9.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | W | 3 | 7.5 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Bayern Munich | W | 8 | 12.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Chelsea | T | 11 | 11.5 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Brentford | W | 6 | 6.7 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Aston Villa | L | 15 | 10.9 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Club Brugge | W | 18 | 9.9 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 3 | 6.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Everton | W | 5 | 9.9 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 8 | 8.8 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vsAston Villa | W | 11 | 8.4 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ AFC Bournemouth | W | 15 | 11.9 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vsLiverpool | T | 8 | 11.6 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Nottingham Forest | T | 6 | 11.1 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @ Internazionale | W | 18 | 12.8 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsManchester United | L | 10 | 11.2 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vs Kairat Almaty | W | 4 | 4.7 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Leeds United | W | 3 | 11.2 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsSunderland | W | 5 | 6.6 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Brentford | T | 12 | 9.1 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @Wolverhampton Wanderers | T | 5 | 8.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Tottenham Hotspur | W | 6 | 10.0 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsChelsea | W | 9 | 9.0 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 11 | 11.3 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | T | 10 | 10.8 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsEverton | W | 9 | 7.1 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vsBayer Leverkusen | W | 9 | 8.2 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Sporting CP | W | 11 | 9.9 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsAFC Bournemouth | L | 8 | 9.5 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vsSporting CP | T | 8 | 7.4 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Manchester City | L | 15 | 13.1 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsNewcastle United | W | 13 | 8.7 | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | T | 18 | 10.5 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsFulham | W | 10 | 8.4 | |
| May 5, 2026 | vsAtlético Madrid | W | 9 | 8.2 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @West Ham United | W | 9 | 9.3 | |
| May 18, 2026 | vsBurnley | W | 5 | 5.7 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Crystal Palace | W | 8 | 10.1 | |
| May 30, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain (neutral) | T | 21 | 13.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.