Lyon @ Brest

Sun, Nov 8 · Ligue 1 · Stade Francis-Le Blé

The odds have it Brest 1.30, Lyon 1.43.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Lyon at Brest: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Lyon9 games	Brest8 games
	+0.02	+0.11
	−0.89	0.00
	+0.13	+0.25
	−0.44	−0.40
	−0.8	+2.8
	−2.6	−2.1
	+0.50	−0.36

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Brest

Brest’s goals are 1.84 higher after an international break than between breaks against expected over its last 75 games, 2nd of 85 teams.fact · rankedthe split →

Lyon

Lyon has won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →

The series

Lyon leads the series 7–3–9 since 2010-11.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

After an international break, Brest’s goal difference are 3.53 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
At home, Brest’s shots conceded are 3.2 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
On the road, Lyon’s expected goals are 0.49 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Jan 18, 2026	at Lyon	Lyon 2, Brest 1
Nov 2, 2025	at Brest	Brest 0, Lyon 0
Mar 2, 2025	at Lyon	Lyon 2, Brest 1
Jan 11, 2025	at Brest	Brest 2, Lyon 1
Apr 14, 2024	at Lyon	Lyon 4, Brest 3
Sep 23, 2023	at Brest	Brest 1, Lyon 0
Feb 1, 2023	at Lyon	Brest 0, Lyon 0
Dec 28, 2022	at Brest	Lyon 4, Brest 2
Apr 20, 2022	at Brest	Brest 2, Lyon 1
Aug 7, 2021	at Lyon	Brest 1, Lyon 1

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.