Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

VfB Stuttgart @ Bayer Leverkusen

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

VfB Stuttgart 4, Bayer Leverkusen 2

VfB Stuttgart at Bayer Leverkusen: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameVfB Stuttgart1 gameBayer Leverkusen1 game
Goals+2.44+0.37
Goals conceded−0.16+2.48
Expected goals+1.80+0.83
Expected goals conceded+0.63+1.37
Shots+2.3+8.1
Shots conceded+6.2−0.3
Points+1.92−1.61

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Bayer Leverkusen

VfB Stuttgart

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

  • Bayer Leverkusen leads the series 24–11–10 since 2002-03. VfB Stuttgart has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Against a bottom-half team, Bayer Leverkusen’s goal difference were 4.03 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.73 under expected.
  • At home, Bayer Leverkusen’s goal difference were 2.37 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.73 under expected.
  • On the road, VfB Stuttgart’s shots conceded were 2.8 over expected in 5 games. A +4.6 difference in shots conceded over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 5.8 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgart 4, Bayer Leverkusen 2
May 9, 2026at VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart 3, Bayer Leverkusen 1
Jan 10, 2026at Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgart 4, Bayer Leverkusen 1
Mar 16, 2025at VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen 4, VfB Stuttgart 3
Nov 1, 2024at Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen 0, VfB Stuttgart 0
Apr 27, 2024at Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen 2, VfB Stuttgart 2
Dec 10, 2023at VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen 1, VfB Stuttgart 1
May 14, 2023at VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen 1, VfB Stuttgart 1
Nov 12, 2022at Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen 2, VfB Stuttgart 0
Feb 12, 2022at Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen 4, VfB Stuttgart 2

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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