UTEP’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 10.3 points under at home and 1.4 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 20.5 and 7.8, a difference of 12.8. All 3 night games were at home. Both ranked opponents were away.
points a game over expected
at home
−10.3
away
−1.4
-100
A −8.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.5
7.8
02040
A +12.8 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 0 | 9.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 51 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 17 | 7.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 7 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 7 | 11.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | 13 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 11 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 7 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.