UTEP’s penalty yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 24.0 yards under vs a ranked opponent and 4.6 yards over vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 4 games against 18. The plain averages are 28.0 and 57.7, a difference of 29.7. All 12 home games were vs an unranked opponent. All 7 night games were vs an unranked opponent. All 16 conference games were vs an unranked opponent.
UTEP’s −28.6 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 77th of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
penalty yards a game over expected
A −28.6 difference in penalty yards over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A −29.7 difference in penalty yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 8 | 47.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 52 | 44.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 36 | 49.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 19 | 48.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ New Mexico State | W | 87 | 55.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 63 | 57.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 33 | 48.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | L | 80 | 48.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLouisiana Tech | L | 50 | 60.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Liberty | L | 40 | 48.0 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 60 | 51.9 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @Kennesaw State | L | 75 | 59.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 50 | 52.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | 74 | 64.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsNew Mexico State | L | 40 | 64.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 80 | 54.6 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 35 | 57.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 46 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 25 | 54.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 89 | 52.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 62 | 57.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | 79 | 57.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 40 | 57.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 60 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Martin, Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.