Putting Up Numbers· college football

UNLV’s total yards with Kayden McGee and without Kayden McGee

, ,

Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 1.1 yards over with Kayden McGee and 60.4 yards over without Kayden McGee in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 370.7 and 493.0, a difference of 122.3. All 4 home games were with Kayden McGee. Both night games were with Kayden McGee. All 4 conference games were with Kayden McGee.

Kayden McGee, receiver: 442 receiving yards, 21 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.

One game without Kayden McGee is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Kayden McGeewithout Kayden McGee
UNLV’s games, 2026, each marked with Kayden McGee or without Kayden McGee
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Aug 29, 2026vsMemphisL460401.7
Sep 5, 2026@HawaiiW366380.6
Sep 12, 2026@North TexasL301403.0
Sep 26, 2026@AkronW493432.6
Oct 3, 2026vsCaliforniaW354387.8
Oct 10, 2026vsNNorth Dakota StateW262—
Oct 17, 2026@Air ForceL376327.0
Oct 31, 2026vsNorthern IllinoisW476426.1

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • North Dakota State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.