UNLV’s third-down conversion rate with Taeshaun Lyons and without Taeshaun Lyons
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 4.0 percentage points over with Taeshaun Lyons and 3.8 percentage points under without Taeshaun Lyons over its last 25 games, 19 games against 1. The plain averages are 45.4% and 37.5%, a difference of 7.9%. All 10 away games were with Taeshaun Lyons. Both neutral-site games were with Taeshaun Lyons. All 8 night games were with Taeshaun Lyons.
Taeshaun Lyons, receiver: 426 receiving yards, 32 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 14 of those 25 games.
One game without Taeshaun Lyons is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Taeshaun Lyons
+4.0%
without Taeshaun Lyons
−3.8%
0%20%
plain
45.4%
37.5%
20%40%60%
The games
with Taeshaun Lyonswithout Taeshaun Lyons
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Nevada | W | 72.7% | 42.2% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 31.3% | 36.8% | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs California (neutral) | W | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Idaho State | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 55.6% | 47.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 50.0% | 48.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 70.6% | 48.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 38.5% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 45.5% | 50.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Boise State | L | 30.8% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 30.8% | 44.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 50.0% | 47.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 46.7% | 42.6% | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 72.7% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Nevada | W | 71.4% | 41.0% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @Boise State | L | 28.6% | 39.9% | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 36.4% | 43.5% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 20.0% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 46.7% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 41.2% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 46.2% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsCalifornia | W | 37.5% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 69.2% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 45.5% | 50.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Idaho State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Taeshaun Lyons nor without Taeshaun Lyons: Taeshaun Lyons had no game for the team that season, and sit out.