UNLV’s third-down conversion rate with Kayden McGee and without Kayden McGee
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 2.2 percentage points over with Kayden McGee and 6.6 percentage points over without Kayden McGee in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.9% and 46.2%, a difference of 4.2%. All 4 home games were with Kayden McGee. Both night games were with Kayden McGee. All 4 conference games were with Kayden McGee.
Kayden McGee, receiver: 442 receiving yards, 21 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Kayden McGee is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Kayden McGee
+2.2%
without Kayden McGee
+6.6%
0%20%
plain
41.9%
46.2%
20%40%60%
The games
with Kayden McGeewithout Kayden McGee
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 20.0% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 46.7% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 41.2% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 46.2% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs California | W | 37.5% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Air Force | L | 69.2% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 45.5% | 50.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Dakota State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.