UNLV’s third-down conversion rate with Jaylon Glover and since Jaylon Glover’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 2.5 percentage points over with Jaylon Glover and 8.0 percentage points over since Jaylon Glover’s last game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 4. The plain averages are 44.7% and 46.3%, a difference of 1.6%. Expected was 1.8 percentage points higher with Jaylon Glover than since Jaylon Glover’s last game. Both neutral-site games were with Jaylon Glover.
Jaylon Glover, running back: 473 rushing yards, 80 carries and 9 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jaylon Glover vs since Jaylon Glover’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −1.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jaylon Glover vs since Jaylon Glover’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Nevada | W | 72.7% | 42.2% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 31.3% | 36.8% | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs California (neutral) | W | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Idaho State | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 55.6% | 47.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 50.0% | 48.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 70.6% | 48.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 38.5% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 45.5% | 50.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Boise State | L | 30.8% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 30.8% | 44.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 50.0% | 47.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 46.7% | 42.6% | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 72.7% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Nevada | W | 71.4% | 41.0% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @Boise State | L | 28.6% | 39.9% | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 36.4% | 43.5% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 20.0% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 46.7% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 41.2% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 46.2% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsCalifornia | W | 37.5% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 69.2% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 45.5% | 50.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Idaho State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Jaylon Glover nor since Jaylon Glover’s last game: Jaylon Glover had no game for the team that season, and sit out.