UNLV’s points with Jaylon Glover and since Jaylon Glover’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 0.6 points under with Jaylon Glover and 8.3 points over since Jaylon Glover’s last game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 4. The plain averages are 30.9 and 30.4, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 4.6 points higher with Jaylon Glover than since Jaylon Glover’s last game. Both neutral-site games were with Jaylon Glover.
Jaylon Glover, running back: 473 rushing yards, 80 carries and 9 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
A −8.9 difference in points over expected with Jaylon Glover vs since Jaylon Glover’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jaylon Glover and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A +0.5 difference in points with Jaylon Glover vs since Jaylon Glover’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Nevada | W | 38 | 34.6 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 7 | 29.2 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs California (neutral) | W | 24 | 26.5 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Idaho State | W | 38 | — | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 38 | 43.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 30 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 41 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 31 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 51 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Boise State | L | 31 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 35 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 42 | 33.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 29 | 35.9 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 38 | 33.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Nevada | W | 42 | 31.3 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @Boise State | L | 21 | 27.6 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 10 | 33.3 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 21 | 24.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 21 | 23.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 6 | 31.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 38 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsCalifornia | W | 39 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 13 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 31 | 18.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 31 | 34.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.8 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Idaho State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Jaylon Glover nor since Jaylon Glover’s last game: Jaylon Glover had no game for the team that season, and sit out.