UNLV’s points of margin with Kayden McGee and without Kayden McGee
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 3.4 points under with Kayden McGee and 21.1 points over without Kayden McGee in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -2.6 and 28.0, a difference of 30.6. All 4 home games were with Kayden McGee. Both night games were with Kayden McGee. All 4 conference games were with Kayden McGee.
Kayden McGee, receiver: 442 receiving yards, 21 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Kayden McGee is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Kayden McGee
−3.4
without Kayden McGee
+21.1
-20020
plain
-2.6
28.0
-20020
The games
with Kayden McGeewithout Kayden McGee
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | -6 | -10.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 15 | -3.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | -38 | -5.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 28 | 6.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs California | W | 8 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 6 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Air Force | L | -10 | -6.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 7 | 18.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Dakota State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.