Putting Up Numbers· college football

UNLV’s penalty yards with Taeshaun Lyons and without Taeshaun Lyons

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 6.0 yards over with Taeshaun Lyons and 4.4 yards over without Taeshaun Lyons over its last 25 games, 19 games against 1. The plain averages are 66.4 and 67.0, a difference of 0.6. Expected was 4.9 yards lower with Taeshaun Lyons than without Taeshaun Lyons. All 10 away games were with Taeshaun Lyons. Both neutral-site games were with Taeshaun Lyons. All 8 night games were with Taeshaun Lyons.

Taeshaun Lyons, receiver: 426 receiving yards, 32 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 14 of those 25 games.

One game without Taeshaun Lyons is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

penalty yards a game over expected

The games

with Taeshaun Lyonswithout Taeshaun Lyons
UNLV’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Taeshaun Lyons or without Taeshaun Lyons
SideDateGameResultpenalty yardsExpected
Nov 30, 2024vsNevadaW3549.9
Dec 6, 2024@Boise StateL3050.2
Dec 18, 2024vsCalifornia (neutral)W2655.8
Aug 23, 2025vsIdaho StateW90—
Aug 29, 2025vsSam Houston (neutral)W9252.4
Sep 6, 2025vsUCLAW13042.8
Sep 20, 2025@Miami (OH)W3554.3
Oct 4, 2025@WyomingW6763.6
Oct 11, 2025vsAir ForceW7950.7
Oct 18, 2025@Boise StateL4566.7
Nov 1, 2025vsNew MexicoL1565.5
Nov 8, 2025@Colorado StateW7260.3
Nov 15, 2025vsUtah StateW2062.2
Nov 21, 2025vsHawaiiW8059.9
Nov 29, 2025@NevadaW9257.3
Dec 5, 2025@Boise StateL7064.9
Dec 23, 2025vsOhio (neutral)L4051.7
Aug 29, 2026vsMemphisL7556.4
Sep 5, 2026@HawaiiW5964.5
Sep 12, 2026@North TexasL6454.6
Sep 26, 2026@AkronW7057.7
Oct 3, 2026vsCaliforniaW6762.6
Oct 10, 2026vsNNorth Dakota StateW94—
Oct 17, 2026@Air ForceL3056.1
Oct 31, 2026vsNorthern IllinoisW7554.7

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
  • Idaho State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
  • 3 games in 2024 are neither with Taeshaun Lyons nor without Taeshaun Lyons: Taeshaun Lyons had no game for the team that season, and sit out.