Putting Up Numbers· college football

UNLV’s pass attempts with Taeshaun Lyons and without Taeshaun Lyons

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 0.0 pass attempts over with Taeshaun Lyons and 5.4 pass attempts under without Taeshaun Lyons over its last 25 games, 19 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.4 and 23.0, a difference of 6.4. All 10 away games were with Taeshaun Lyons. Both neutral-site games were with Taeshaun Lyons. All 8 night games were with Taeshaun Lyons.

Taeshaun Lyons, receiver: 426 receiving yards, 32 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 14 of those 25 games.

One game without Taeshaun Lyons is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

pass attempts a game over expected

The games

with Taeshaun Lyonswithout Taeshaun Lyons
UNLV’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Taeshaun Lyons or without Taeshaun Lyons
SideDateGameResultpass attemptsExpected
Nov 30, 2024vsNevadaW2120.8
Dec 6, 2024@Boise StateL2825.7
Dec 18, 2024vsCalifornia (neutral)W1925.2
Aug 23, 2025vsIdaho StateW24—
Aug 29, 2025vsSam Houston (neutral)W2329.2
Sep 6, 2025vsUCLAW2129.2
Sep 20, 2025@Miami (OH)W4333.4
Oct 4, 2025@WyomingW2031.7
Oct 11, 2025vsAir ForceW3329.1
Oct 18, 2025@Boise StateL3030.7
Nov 1, 2025vsNew MexicoL4629.4
Nov 8, 2025@Colorado StateW2430.0
Nov 15, 2025vsUtah StateW4335.2
Nov 21, 2025vsHawaiiW2630.5
Nov 29, 2025@NevadaW2231.0
Dec 5, 2025@Boise StateL3829.7
Dec 23, 2025vsOhio (neutral)L3030.5
Aug 29, 2026vsMemphisL3728.8
Sep 5, 2026@HawaiiW1829.3
Sep 12, 2026@North TexasL3230.2
Sep 26, 2026@AkronW2931.4
Oct 3, 2026vsCaliforniaW2328.4
Oct 10, 2026vsNNorth Dakota StateW16—
Oct 17, 2026@Air ForceL3329.7
Oct 31, 2026vsNorthern IllinoisW3028.6

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
  • Idaho State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
  • 3 games in 2024 are neither with Taeshaun Lyons nor without Taeshaun Lyons: Taeshaun Lyons had no game for the team that season, and sit out.