UNLV’s carries with Taeshaun Lyons and without Taeshaun Lyons
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 0.8 carries over with Taeshaun Lyons and 1.5 carries under without Taeshaun Lyons in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.4 and 36.0, a difference of 1.4. Expected was 2.1 carries lower with Taeshaun Lyons than without Taeshaun Lyons. All 4 away games were with Taeshaun Lyons. Both night games were with Taeshaun Lyons. All 4 conference games were with Taeshaun Lyons.
Taeshaun Lyons, receiver: 185 receiving yards, 16 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 6 games this season.
One game without Taeshaun Lyons is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Taeshaun Lyons
+0.8
without Taeshaun Lyons
−1.5
-505
plain
37.4
36.0
30354045
The games
with Taeshaun Lyonswithout Taeshaun Lyons
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 41 | 37.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 42 | 35.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 39 | 37.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 33 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs California | W | 36 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 45 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Air Force | L | 32 | 28.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 30 | 38.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Dakota State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.