UNLV’s carries with Kayden McGee and without Kayden McGee
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UNLV was 0.4 carries under with Kayden McGee and 0.5 carries over without Kayden McGee over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 35.3 and 38.6, a difference of 3.3. All 3 neutral-site games were with Kayden McGee. Both bowl and playoff games were with Kayden McGee.
Kayden McGee, receiver: 491 receiving yards, 22 receptions and 6 receiving touchdowns in 14 of those 25 games, 3% of UNLV’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Kayden McGee
−0.4
without Kayden McGee
+0.5
-505
A −0.9 difference in carries over expected with Kayden McGee vs without Kayden McGee is about what you’d expect.
plain
35.3
38.6
30354045
A −3.3 difference in carries with Kayden McGee vs without Kayden McGee is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Kayden McGeewithout Kayden McGee
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Nevada | W | 41 | 42.7 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 35 | 37.7 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs California (neutral) | W | 38 | 39.2 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Idaho State | W | 41 | — | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 32 | 40.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 30 | 36.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 43 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 38 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 27 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Boise State | L | 40 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs New Mexico | L | 29 | 34.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 40 | 37.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 32 | 36.9 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 41 | 32.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Nevada | W | 31 | 35.5 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @Boise State | L | 34 | 31.7 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 29 | 33.1 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 41 | 37.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 42 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 39 | 37.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 33 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsCalifornia | W | 36 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 45 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 32 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 30 | 38.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Idaho State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.