Texas’ points at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 2.5 points over at home and 1.8 points under away in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.7 and 20.0, a difference of 13.7. All 3 night games were at home. All 4 unranked opponents were at home. Both top-10 opponents were at home.
One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+2.5
away
−1.8
01020
plain
33.7
20.0
20304050
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 59 | 33.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 24 | 27.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTSA | W | 30 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 20 | 21.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | L | 24 | 25.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 24 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 34 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31 | 30.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.