Texas’ rushing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 49.6 yards over vs a ranked opponent and 49.2 yards under vs an unranked opponent in 2025, 6 games against 7. The plain averages are 151.0 and 131.0, a difference of 20.0. Expected was 78.7 yards lower vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent. Both neutral-site games were vs a ranked opponent.
Texas’ +98.7 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 1st of the 36 teams with 4 games on each side in 2025.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +98.7 difference in rushing yards over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
A +20.0 difference in rushing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 166 | 77.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 155 | 180.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 227 | 197.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 264 | 227.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida | L | 52 | 150.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | W | 138 | 77.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 49 | 132.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 72 | 178.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 101 | 123.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 23 | 95.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 98 | 193.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | W | 220 | 121.2 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Michigan (neutral) | W | 258 | 113.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 5.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.