Texas’ carries in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 4.0 carries under in a conference game and 4.5 carries over in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 14 games against 11. The plain averages are 29.7 and 38.5, a difference of 8.8.
Texas’ −8.6 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 134th of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
carries a game over expected
in a conference game
−4.0
in a nonconference game
+4.5
-10010
A −8.6 difference in carries over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
plain
29.7
38.5
20304050
A −8.8 difference in carries in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
The games
in a conference gamein a nonconference game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 28 | 34.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Clemson | W | 46 | 32.5 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | W | 29 | 32.0 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 29 | 34.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @Ohio State | L | 37 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 32 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 55 | 35.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 41 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida | L | 26 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | W | 32 | 30.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 26 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 32 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 26 | 28.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Georgia | L | 17 | 27.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 27 | 36.7 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | W | 33 | 29.3 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Michigan (neutral) | W | 31 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 36 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOhio State | W | 40 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTSA | W | 48 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 35 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsOklahoma (neutral) | L | 32 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida | L | 30 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 40 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMississippi State | W | 32 | 36.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.