Southern Miss’ third-down conversion rate with Robert Briggs and without Robert Briggs
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Southern Miss was 0.8 percentage points over with Robert Briggs and 5.5 percentage points under without Robert Briggs over its last 25 games, 11 games against 8. The plain averages are 39.1% and 31.9%, a difference of 7.2%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Robert Briggs.
Robert Briggs, running back: 370 rushing yards, 66 carries and 13 receptions in 13 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Robert Briggs
+0.8%
without Robert Briggs
−5.5%
-20%0%
A +6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Robert Briggs vs without Robert Briggs is about what you’d expect.
plain
39.1%
31.9%
20%40%
A +7.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Robert Briggs vs without Robert Briggs is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Robert Briggswithout Robert Briggs
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 7.1% | 28.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas State | L | 22.2% | 30.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs South Alabama | L | 31.6% | 30.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Troy | L | 25.0% | 30.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | L | 52.6% | 35.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Jackson State | W | 36.4% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 44.4% | 41.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 41.2% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 33.3% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 40.0% | 44.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 15.4% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 45.5% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 41.2% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTexas State | L | 55.6% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @South Alabama | L | 30.8% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsTroy | L | 35.7% | 38.3% | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky (neutral) | L | 35.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Alcorn State | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | 38.5% | 29.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 33.3% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 21.4% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @Troy | L | 33.3% | 33.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsArkansas State | L | 35.7% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsLouisiana | W | 25.0% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Louisiana Monroe | W | 27.8% | 35.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Jackson State, Alcorn State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Robert Briggs nor without Robert Briggs: Robert Briggs had no game for the team that season, and sit out.