Southern Miss’ third-down conversion rate with Landry Lyddy and without Landry Lyddy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Southern Miss was 3.8 percentage points under with Landry Lyddy and 0.9 percentage points under without Landry Lyddy over its last 25 games, 6 games against 13. The plain averages are 33.1% and 37.7%, a difference of 4.5%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Landry Lyddy.
Landry Lyddy, quarterback: 1,732 passing yards, 253 pass attempts and 150 completions in 12 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is about what you’d expect.
A −4.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Landry Lyddy and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 7.1% | 28.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas State | L | 22.2% | 30.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs South Alabama | L | 31.6% | 30.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Troy | L | 25.0% | 30.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | L | 52.6% | 35.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Jackson State | W | 36.4% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 44.4% | 41.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 41.2% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 33.3% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 40.0% | 44.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 15.4% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 45.5% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 41.2% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTexas State | L | 55.6% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @South Alabama | L | 30.8% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsTroy | L | 35.7% | 38.3% | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky (neutral) | L | 35.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Alcorn State | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | 38.5% | 29.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 33.3% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 21.4% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @Troy | L | 33.3% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsArkansas State | L | 35.7% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsLouisiana | W | 25.0% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Louisiana Monroe | W | 27.8% | 35.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Jackson State, Alcorn State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Landry Lyddy nor without Landry Lyddy: Landry Lyddy had no game for the team that season, and sit out.