Southern Miss’ third-down conversion rate with Landry Lyddy and without Landry Lyddy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Southern Miss was 8.0 percentage points under with Landry Lyddy and 2.3 percentage points over without Landry Lyddy in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 28.7% and 37.8%, a difference of 9.2%. All 4 conference games were with Landry Lyddy. Both games after a bye were with Landry Lyddy. All 4 second-half games were with Landry Lyddy.
Landry Lyddy, quarterback: 1,326 passing yards, 201 pass attempts and 116 completions in 8 games this season.
3 games without Landry Lyddy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −10.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is about what you’d expect.
A −9.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Landry Lyddy and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Alcorn State | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | 38.5% | 29.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 33.3% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 21.4% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ Troy | L | 33.3% | 33.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | L | 35.7% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 25.0% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 27.8% | 35.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.