Southern Miss’ points of margin with Landry Lyddy and without Landry Lyddy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Southern Miss was 0.8 points under with Landry Lyddy and 1.0 points under without Landry Lyddy over its last 25 games, 6 games against 13. The plain averages are -7.2 and 1.9, a difference of 9.0. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Landry Lyddy.
Landry Lyddy, quarterback: 1,732 passing yards, 253 pass attempts and 150 completions in 12 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Landry Lyddy
−0.8
without Landry Lyddy
−1.0
-200
A +0.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Landry Lyddy and it comes up 17 times in 100.
plain
-7.2
1.9
0
A −9.0 difference in points of margin with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Landry Lyddywithout Landry Lyddy
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | -34 | -24.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas State | L | -55 | -28.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs South Alabama | L | -21 | -21.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Troy | L | -32 | -17.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | L | -17 | -9.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Jackson State | W | 18 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 16 | 5.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | -10 | -6.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 17 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 12 | -1.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 28 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 6 | -2.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTexas State | L | -27 | -0.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @South Alabama | L | -7 | 0.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsTroy | L | -10 | 2.8 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky (neutral) | L | -11 | -1.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Alcorn State | W | 46 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | -35 | -25.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UConn | L | -28 | 2.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | -3 | -14.5 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @Troy | L | -21 | -6.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsArkansas State | L | -10 | -1.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsLouisiana | W | 4 | -14.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Louisiana Monroe | W | 14 | -0.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Jackson State, Alcorn State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Landry Lyddy nor without Landry Lyddy: Landry Lyddy had no game for the team that season, and sit out.