Southern Miss’ points of margin with Landry Lyddy and without Landry Lyddy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Southern Miss was 4.3 points over with Landry Lyddy and 19.7 points under without Landry Lyddy in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -3.2 and -5.7, a difference of 2.5. Expected was 4.2 points higher with Landry Lyddy than without Landry Lyddy. All 4 conference games were with Landry Lyddy. Both games after a bye were with Landry Lyddy. All 4 second-half games were with Landry Lyddy.
Landry Lyddy, quarterback: 1,326 passing yards, 201 pass attempts and 116 completions in 8 games this season.
3 games without Landry Lyddy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +24.1 difference in points of margin over expected with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Landry Lyddy and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A +2.5 difference in points of margin with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Alcorn State | W | 46 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | -35 | -25.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UConn | L | -28 | 2.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | -3 | -14.5 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ Troy | L | -21 | -6.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | L | -10 | -1.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 4 | -14.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 14 | -0.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.