Southern Miss’ passing yards with Landry Lyddy and without Landry Lyddy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Southern Miss was 13.3 yards over with Landry Lyddy and 10.2 yards over without Landry Lyddy over its last 25 games, 6 games against 13. The plain averages are 238.3 and 259.2, a difference of 20.9. Expected was 29.3 yards lower with Landry Lyddy than without Landry Lyddy. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Landry Lyddy.
Landry Lyddy, quarterback: 1,732 passing yards, 253 pass attempts and 150 completions in 12 of those 25 games, 58% of Southern Miss’s passing yards in those games.
passing yards a game over expected
A +3.1 difference in passing yards over expected with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is about what you’d expect.
A −20.9 difference in passing yards with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 70 | 191.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas State | L | 70 | 190.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs South Alabama | L | 137 | 216.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Troy | L | 259 | 172.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | L | 199 | 246.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Jackson State | W | 224 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 279 | 282.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 392 | 242.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 152 | 270.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 237 | 267.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 238 | 260.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 248 | 267.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 356 | 243.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsTexas State | L | 267 | 266.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @South Alabama | L | 400 | 209.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsTroy | L | 209 | 237.9 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky (neutral) | L | 258 | 258.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Alcorn State | W | 226 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | 171 | 234.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 299 | 284.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 270 | 222.2 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @Troy | L | 391 | 195.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsArkansas State | L | 208 | 201.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsLouisiana | W | 164 | 224.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Louisiana Monroe | W | 130 | 240.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 in 2025, plus 4.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2025, 59% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Jackson State, Alcorn State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Landry Lyddy nor without Landry Lyddy: Landry Lyddy had no game for the team that season, and sit out.