Southern Miss’ pass attempts with Landry Lyddy and without Landry Lyddy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Southern Miss was 1.3 pass attempts over with Landry Lyddy and 5.3 pass attempts over without Landry Lyddy in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 34.2 and 37.0, a difference of 2.8. Expected was 3.8 pass attempts lower with Landry Lyddy than without Landry Lyddy. All 4 conference games were with Landry Lyddy. Both games after a bye were with Landry Lyddy. All 4 second-half games were with Landry Lyddy.
Landry Lyddy, quarterback: 1,326 passing yards, 201 pass attempts and 116 completions in 8 games this season, 71% of Southern Miss’s pass attempts in those games.
3 games without Landry Lyddy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
A −4.0 difference in pass attempts over expected with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is about what you’d expect.
A −2.8 difference in pass attempts with Landry Lyddy vs without Landry Lyddy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Alcorn State | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Auburn | L | 33 | 37.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 51 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 30 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ Troy | L | 39 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | L | 34 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 38 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 30 | 31.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.