Northwestern’s rushing yards with Robby Preckel and without Robby Preckel
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Northwestern was 9.4 yards under with Robby Preckel and 49.5 yards over without Robby Preckel over its last 25 games, 14 games against 5. The plain averages are 155.6 and 220.3, a difference of 64.7. All 3 neutral-site games were with Robby Preckel. All 4 ranked opponents were with Robby Preckel. Both top-10 opponents were with Robby Preckel.
Robby Preckel, tight end: 8 receiving yards and 2 receptions in 9 of those 25 games, 11% of Northwestern’s rushing yards in those games.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −58.9 difference in rushing yards over expected with Robby Preckel vs without Robby Preckel is about what you’d expect.
A −64.7 difference in rushing yards with Robby Preckel vs without Robby Preckel is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Robby Preckel and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Purdue | W | 124 | 153.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 58 | 60.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Michigan | L | 11 | 78.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | 113 | 114.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 76 | 126.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 283 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 180 | 119.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 199 | 178.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 246 | 173.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Penn State | W | 129 | 144.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsPurdue | W | 237 | 173.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | 172 | 169.9 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ USC | L | 130 | 139.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsMichigan (neutral) | L | 61 | 141.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Minnesota (neutral) | W | 220 | 134.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Illinois | L | 91 | 136.0 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Central Michigan (neutral) | W | 77 | 191.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota State | W | 224 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 190 | 146.7 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 33 | 156.3 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vsPenn State | W | 413 | 150.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 165 | 243.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 134 | 184.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 285 | 224.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Oregon | L | 175 | 162.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois, South Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 14 of these 21 games; in the other 7 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Robby Preckel nor without Robby Preckel: Robby Preckel had no game for the team that season, and sit out.