Nevada’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 11.5 points over at home and 11.3 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 29.3 and 16.8, a difference of 12.5.
points a game over expected
at home
+11.5
away
−11.3
-1001020
A +22.8 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 9 times in 100.
plain
29.3
16.8
02040
A +12.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 49 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 7 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 20 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Air Force | L | 33 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 30 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 17 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 28 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 0 | 16.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.